Full Truck Alliance .(US:YMM) CMS·2025-11-21 06:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Insights - The company reported Q3 revenue of 3.36 billion (+10.8% YoY), with net profit at 920 million (-17.9% YoY) and Non-GAAP net profit at 990 million (-20.4% YoY) [1][6]. - The freight matching revenue reached 2.8 billion (+9.6% YoY), with brokerage business revenue at 1.09 billion (-14.6% YoY), membership revenue at 250 million (+10.6% YoY), and commission revenue at 1.46 billion (+39.0% YoY) [1][6]. - The company is a leading digital freight platform with strong network effects, benefiting from a robust supply of drivers and continuous growth in the number of shippers and order volume [1][6]. - The company expects Q4 revenue to be approximately 3.08 to 3.18 billion, primarily impacted by short-term adjustments in the brokerage business [6]. Financial Performance - The company’s projected main revenue for 2023 is 8.436 billion, with a growth rate of 25% [2]. - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to grow from 2.725 billion in 2023 to 6.560 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [2][9]. - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 30.0 in 2023 to 12.5 in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics over time [2][10]. Operational Metrics - The number of active shippers (MAU) reached 3.35 million (+17.6% YoY), with fulfillment order volume at 63.4 million (+22.2% YoY) [6]. - The fulfillment rate improved to 40.6%, a year-on-year increase of approximately 6 percentage points [6]. - The company’s gross margin for Q3 was 52.2%, with a slight year-on-year decline due to increased costs in the brokerage business [6]. Investment Recommendation - The company is positioned as a market leader in the cross-city digital freight sector, with strong barriers to entry and continued high growth in core commission business [6]. - The target price is set at approximately 14.50 USD, based on a 20x PE multiple of the projected Non-GAAP net profit for 2026 [3][6].