苹果周报：入库量偏低，消区表现一般-20251121

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - This year, apple production has declined, the excellent fruit rate is poor, and preservation is more difficult. The market expects that the cold storage inventory data is likely to be low. The effective inventory is expected to be low, and the apple fundamentals are strong. However, due to large recent fluctuations, it is recommended to stand on the sidelines for single - sided trading, arbitrage, and options trading [16]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Logic Analysis and Trading Strategy a. Spot Analysis - In Shandong and Shanxi, some apple sources are still being stored in cold storage, and ground trading is gradually ending. Inventory trading is limited. In the sales areas, it is still the off - season, and the trading atmosphere is light. The increasing supply of citrus squeezes the apple sales space. The prices in major producing areas vary. For example, in Shandong, the ground transaction price of late Fuji has different ranges for different sizes and grades; in Shaanxi, the出库 prices also vary by region and fruit quality [7]. b. Supply Analysis - As of November 20, 2025, the national cold storage inventory ratio is about 55.69%, 7.94 percentage points lower than the same period last year, a year - on - year decrease of 12.48%. This week, the national cold storage capacity ratio decreased by 0.18 percentage points, and the destocking rate was 0.32%. Shandong and Shaanxi have different inventory trends. The cold storage capacity ratio in Shandong increased by 0.57 percentage points, and in Shaanxi, it decreased by 0.08 percentage points. As of November 19, 2025, the national main - producing area apple cold storage inventory was 773.16 million tons, an increase of 8.92 million tons from last week [12]. c. Demand Analysis - In the Guangdong Chalong market, the number of morning arrival vehicles has little change. The market is mainly dominated by Gansu apple sources, and the sales of Yunnan smooth - skinned apples have slowed down. The enthusiasm of second - and third - level wholesalers for purchasing is not high. The average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits on November 20 was 7.18 yuan per kilogram, slightly lower than last Friday, and at a high level in recent years. The profit statistics of storage merchants for Qixia 80 first - and second - grade apples have been suspended [15]. d. Trading Strategy - Trading Logic: Apple production has declined this year, and the cold storage inventory peak is likely to be lower than last year. The apple fundamentals are strong. - Single - sided: Due to large recent fluctuations, it is recommended to stand on the sidelines. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to stand on the sidelines. - Options: It is recommended to stand on the sidelines [16]. 2. Weekly Data Tracking a. Apple Supply and Demand Situation - There are data on apple exports, planting areas, and consumption, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the summary part. b. Inventory and Shipment - There are trend charts of national and Shandong cold storage apple inventory and national cold storage apple shipment, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the summary part. c. Price Spread and Basis - There are data on 5 - month basis, 10 - month basis, 1 - 5 price spread, 5 - 10 price spread, and 10 - 1 price spread, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the summary part.