减产趋势下价格底部震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the ferroalloy market continue to show a pattern of both supply and demand decline, with support from the cost side. The market is expected to oscillate at the bottom this week due to the drag of macro - sentiment, but the low valuation of the alloy itself and the production - cut trend on the supply side make the profit - loss ratio of short - selling unfavorable [5][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the production of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese sample enterprises has both decreased, and a production - cut trend has initially formed as prices reach low levels and enterprise losses increase. On the demand side, steel production and apparent demand have both increased this week, but steel profits remain low, and future pig iron production is expected to oscillate downward, with a weakening expectation for raw material demand. On the cost side, ferroalloy electricity prices in production areas are generally firm, port manganese ore inventories are at a low level compared to the same period, and spot manganese ore prices are stable with a slight upward trend [5] - Macro - aspects: Recently, the sentiment in the risk - asset market has been generally weak. Hawkish remarks from the Fed's Cook led to a sharp decline in US stocks, driving an overall adjustment in the global equity market. In the domestic commodity market, coking coal has led the overall ferrous metals to operate weakly, which also impacts the sentiment in the ferroalloy market. However, due to the low valuation of the alloy itself and the emerging production - cut trend on the supply side, the profit - loss ratio of short - selling is not high, so the market is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom this week [5] Strategies - Unilateral: Affected by macro - sentiment, but with a low valuation of the alloy itself and a production - cut trend on the supply side, the market is expected to oscillate at the bottom this week [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle combinations on rallies [6] Weekly Data Tracking Supply and Demand Data Tracking - Demand: According to Mysteel data, the average daily pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills is 2.3628 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.6 million tons. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel grades (the sample accounts for about 70% of the total demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel grades) is 19,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 500 tons; the weekly demand for silicomanganese in five major steel grades (70%) is 121,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,800 tons [11] - Supply: The operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises in the country is 33.81%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.03%; the national ferrosilicon production (weekly supply) is 108,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 800 tons. The operating rate of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises in the country is 39.13%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.46%; the national silicomanganese production (99% of weekly supply) is 196,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,700 tons [12] - Inventory: In the week of November 21, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises in the country is 73,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8,300 tons; the inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises in the country (accounting for 79.77% of the national production capacity) is 363,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,500 tons [13] Cost - Profit Analysis - Silicomanganese: The production costs in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, and Guizhou are 5,778 yuan/ton, 5,877 yuan/ton, 6,376 yuan/ton, and 6,195 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding losses of 178 yuan/ton, 397 yuan/ton, 806 yuan/ton, and 645 yuan/ton. The production costs in the north and south are 5,809 yuan/ton and 6,268 yuan/ton respectively, with losses of 302 yuan/ton and 713 yuan/ton [32] - Ferrosilicon: The production costs in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, Qinghai, and Gansu are 5,441 yuan/ton, 5,622 yuan/ton, 5,726 yuan/ton, 5,780 yuan/ton, and 5,828 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding losses of 241 yuan/ton, 472 yuan/ton, 596 yuan/ton, 580 yuan/ton, and 628 yuan/ton [42]