Market Overview - The cryptocurrency market has seen a significant decline in November, with the overall market cap dropping by $750 billion to within $3 trillion[2] - Bitcoin has fluctuated below $90,000, currently at $86,500, marking a nearly 30% drop from its peak on October 6[2] - Altcoins have experienced even greater declines, with most altcoin/BTC trading pairs showing weak performance[2] Economic Factors - The current downturn is attributed more to macroeconomic factors and profit-taking rather than structural risks within the industry, unlike the extreme bear market of 2022[3] - Recent comments from multiple Federal Reserve officials have shifted market sentiment towards a cautious stance ahead of the December meeting, with a 32% implied probability of a rate cut[4][5] Bitcoin Technical Analysis - Bitcoin has not shown signs of a bottoming out, with support levels moving down after breaking below $94,000[8] - Long-term holders are continuing to reduce their positions, while short-term holders are facing ongoing losses[8] Market Sentiment - The cryptocurrency and stock market fear and greed indices remain in the extreme fear zone, indicating a bearish sentiment among investors[13] ETF Trends - Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have recorded continuous net outflows since early November, with significant redemptions from major funds like BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF[8][18] Key Metrics - Major cryptocurrencies have seen substantial declines, with Bitcoin down 16.3% bi-weekly and 21.6% monthly, while Ethereum has dropped 17.7% bi-weekly and 27.9% monthly[16] Regulatory Developments - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has issued new guidelines allowing licensed platforms to share liquidity with overseas platforms, marking a shift towards more integrated regulation[24] Institutional Movements - Coinbase has launched a savings account in the UK offering a 3.75% interest rate, while Block reported $1.97 billion in Bitcoin-related revenue for Q3, accounting for nearly one-third of total revenue[19] Future Outlook - The market is expected to remain under pressure until new capital inflows or clear macro catalysts emerge, with Bitcoin potentially testing the $84,000 to $85,000 range[13]
数字资产双周报（2025.11.6-2025.11.21）：宏观逆风下加密市场续跌-20251121
Bank of China Securities·2025-11-21 06:58