纯苯、苯乙烯日报：纯苯累库加速，苯乙烯再现分化-20251121
Tong Hui Qi Huo·2025-11-21 07:38
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pure benzene market continues to be weak. Recently, the arrival rhythm of imports has been relatively dense, and port inventories have significantly increased, putting pressure on the spot market. The spot discount has widened, and the basis has further weakened, indicating a shift in market sentiment from stable to weak. Although low gasoline inventories provide some support for Asian aromatics, the overall external processing margin is weakening, and its support for the domestic market is limited. Overseas arbitrage spreads have been repaired, which may attract some South Korean supplies to flow outward, alleviating China's subsequent import pressure to some extent, but this effect is more medium - term. Domestically, supply is moderately increasing, while downstream demand is insufficient. The profitability of major benzene - consuming products like caprolactam and phenol - acetone is severely compressed, and their operating rates are mostly weak or only at a rigid level, unable to effectively consume pure benzene. In general, pure benzene is still in a weak - equilibrium state dominated by inventory in the short term, with the supply - demand mismatch intensifying spot pressure and prices showing weak fluctuations. Future focus should be on changes in import rhythm and signs of increased operating rates due to active resumption of downstream plants or improved profitability [2]. - Styrene shows more resilience than pure benzene, presenting a structural divergence. Although the price difference between the futures and spot markets has adjusted, the inventory in East China continues to decline, reflecting the combined effect of tight supply and improved short - term exports. Currently, styrene's operating rate is relatively low, and plant maintenance effectively restricts supply, keeping inventory in a downward trend. The market is also concerned about the resumption of plant operations at the end of the month. Once the resumptions are concentrated, the tight supply pattern may be alleviated, and the inventory trend may reverse, which requires continuous monitoring [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Fundamental Information - Price: On November 20, the main styrene futures contract closed up 0.55% at 6,595 yuan/ton, with a basis of 20 (+19 yuan/ton); the main pure benzene futures contract closed up 1.14% at 5,595 yuan/ton. The spot price of East China pure benzene was 5,420 yuan/ton (+25 yuan/ton), Brent crude oil closed at $59.4/barrel (-$1.3/barrel), and WTI crude oil closed at $63.5/barrel (-$1.4/barrel) [2]. - Inventory: Styrene port inventory was 14.8 tons (-2.7 tons), a 15.2% month - on - month decline, continuing the destocking trend but still higher than in previous years. Pure benzene port inventory was 14.7 tons (+3.4 tons), a 30.1% month - on - month increase [2]. - Supply: Styrene's operating rate and supply fluctuated slightly month - on - month. Currently, the weekly styrene output is 34.3 tons (-0.1 tons), and the plant capacity utilization rate is 69.0% (-0.3%) [2]. - Demand: The overall demand of downstream 3S products has recovered. The capacity utilization rate of EPS is 56.3% (+4.6%), ABS is 72.4% (+0.6%), and PS is 55.9% (+0.5%) [2]. 3.2 Industry Chain Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Styrene and Pure Benzene Prices | Product | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/20 | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Styrene (Futures Main Contract) | 6,559.0 yuan/ton | 6,595.0 yuan/ton | 0.55% | | Styrene (Spot) | 6,594.0 yuan/ton | 6,620.0 yuan/ton | 0.39% | | Styrene Basis | 1.0 yuan/ton | 20.0 yuan/ton | 190000% | | Pure Benzene (Futures Main Contract) | 5,533.0 yuan/ton | 5,596.0 yuan/ton | 1.14% | | Pure Benzene (East China) | 5,390.0 yuan/ton | 5,455.0 yuan/ton | 1.21% | | Pure Benzene (South Korea FOB) | $664.0/ton | $664.0/ton | 0.00% | | Pure Benzene (US FOB) | $829.9/ton | $829.9/ton | 0.00% | | Pure Benzene (China CFR) | $677.2/ton | $677.2/ton | 0.00% | | Pure Benzene Domestic - CFR Price Difference | -408.0 yuan/ton | -345.7 yuan/ton | 15.28% | | Pure Benzene East China - Shandong Price Difference | -160.0 yuan/ton | -45.0 yuan/ton | 71.88% | | Brent Crude Oil | $60.7/barrel | $59.4/barrel | -2.14% | | WTI Crude Oil | $64.9/barrel | $63.5/barrel | -2.13% | | Naphtha | 7,106.5 yuan/ton | 7,106.5 yuan/ton | 0.00% | [5] 3.2.2 Styrene and Pure Benzene Production and Inventory | Product | 2025/11/14 | 2025/11/21 | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Styrene Production (China) | 34.4 tons | 34.3 tons | -0.43% | | Pure Benzene Production (China) | 45.4 tons | 44.7 tons | -1.67% | | Styrene Port Inventory (Jiangsu) | 17.5 tons | 14.8 tons | -15.16% | | Styrene Factory Inventory (Domestic) | 18.9 tons | 18.8 tons | -0.70% | | Pure Benzene Port Inventory (National) | 11.3 tons | 14.7 tons | 30.09% | [6] 3.2.3 Operating Rate | Product | 2025/11/14 Capacity Utilization | 2025/11/21 Capacity Utilization | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Styrene (Pure Benzene Downstream) | 69.3% | 69.0% | -0.30% | | Caprolactam (Pure Benzene Downstream) | 86.0% | 88.2% | 2.18% | | Phenol (Pure Benzene Downstream) | 67.3% | 78.7% | 11.46% | | Aniline (Pure Benzene Downstream) | 80.2% | 75.7% | -4.49% | | EPS (Styrene Downstream) | 51.6% | 56.3% | 4.64% | | ABS (Styrene Downstream) | 71.8% | 72.4% | 0.60% | | PS (Styrene Downstream) | 55.4% | 55.9% | 0.50% | [7] 3.3 Industry News - The EU imposed sanctions on several Russian individuals. - The number of non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 119,000 in September, higher than market expectations. - Iran's foreign minister announced the official termination of the Cairo Agreement signed with the International Atomic Energy Agency. - The US Department of Energy announced a restructuring, prioritizing oil and nuclear energy resources and replacing the previous department dedicated to renewable energy and energy efficiency [8]. 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including those on pure benzene prices, styrene prices, styrene - pure benzene price differences, styrene and pure benzene import - domestic cost differences, styrene port and factory inventories, pure benzene port inventory, ABS inventory, and the weekly capacity utilization rates of caprolactam, phenol, and aniline. The data sources are iFinD and Steel Union Data [13][18][22][28][29].