Report General Information - Report Date: November 21, 2025 [5] - Report Type: Daily Report on Coal and Coke in the Ferrous Metals Industry [5] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Coke: The latest data shows that both supply and demand of coke have weakened slightly, with little change in the fundamentals. As of the week ending November 21, the combined daily average coke output of independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 1088,900 tons, a weekly decrease of 2800 tons. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 2,362,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 6000 tons, and the profitability rate of steel mills continued to decline by 1.3 percentage points to 37.66%, indicating that steel mills are in a large - scale loss situation. Overall, the strong supply expectation of coking coal has cooled down, dragging down the cost support of coke. The main futures contract maintains a weak and volatile operation. Continuous attention should be paid to the supply of coking coal [6][36]. - Coking Coal: As of the week ending November 21, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 758,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 38,000 tons. The combined daily average coke output of downstream coking plants and steel mills was 1088,900 tons, a weekly decrease of 2800 tons. Although the profits of independent coking plants have improved significantly this week, the port market has over - anticipated price cuts in advance. There are doubts about the extent and sustainability of the improvement in downstream demand, and the positive factors on the demand side of coking coal are still insufficient. Overall, the weakening of the anti - involution expectation and the accelerated customs clearance of Mongolian coal have weakened the supply - side support of coking coal. However, considering that the output of coal mines may decline after achieving production targets at the end of the year and the Politburo meeting will be held in December, the sustainability of the downward trend of coking coal futures remains to be observed [6][36]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry News - Electricity Consumption: In October, the total social electricity consumption was 857.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%. The electricity consumption of the primary, secondary, tertiary industries and urban and rural residents all increased year - on - year, with the tertiary industry and urban and rural residents having relatively high growth rates [8]. - Port Cargo Volume: As of November 16, the cumulative import and export freight volume of Ganqimao Port was 35.8326 million tons, including 33.8984 million tons of imported coal. The port has completed 80% of its annual cargo volume target, with a remaining gap of about 8.7 million tons for coal. The three major ports will be closed on November 26 for the Mongolian Republic's National Day and resume customs clearance on November 27. There is a possibility of an increase in the daily customs clearance vehicle number at Ganqimao Port next week. The self - pick - up price of the mainstream Mongolian No. 5 raw coal has dropped by 170 yuan/ton from the highest price in November [9]. 2. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change |同期 Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke - Rizhao Port Standard First - Class FOB | 1670 yuan/ton | +3.09% | +6.37% | - 1.18% | - 6.70% | | Coke - Qingdao Port Standard First - Class Ex - warehouse | 1490 yuan/ton | - 2.61% | - 3.87% | - 8.02% | - 10.78% | | Coking Coal - Ganqimao Port Mongolian Coal | 1330 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 4.32% | +12.71% | - 3.62% | | Coking Coal - Jingtang Port Australian Coal | 1590 yuan/ton | - 1.24% | - 4.22% | +6.71% | - 6.47% | | Coking Coal - Jingtang Port Shanxi Coal | 1790 yuan/ton | - 2.19% | +2.87% | +16.99% | +5.29% | [10] 3. Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Price Change | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | - | 1614.5 | - 1.31 | 1647.5 | 1614.5 | 16023 | - 3327 | 36556 | 80 | | Coking Coal | - | 1103.0 | - 1.82 | 1124.0 | 1096.0 | 620493 | - 94108 | 497103 | - 39806 | [15] 4. Related Charts - Coke Inventory: Charts show the inventory data of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, ports and total coke inventory on a weekly basis from 2020 - 2025 [16][18][21]. - Coking Coal Inventory: Charts present the inventory data of mine - mouth coking coal, port coking coal, 247 sample steel mills and all - sample independent coking plants on a weekly basis from 2019 - 2025 [22][25][27][33]. - Other Charts: Include domestic steel mill production (blast furnace operating rate and steel mill profitability rate), Shanghai terminal wire and rod procurement volume, coal washing plant production (coal washing plant clean coal inventory and operating rate), and coking plant operation (ton - coke profit and coke oven capacity utilization rate) [29][31][34][35]. 5. Future Outlook - Similar to the core viewpoints, it emphasizes the weakening supply and demand of coke, the cooling of the strong coking coal supply expectation, and the insufficient positive factors on the coking coal demand side. The downward trend sustainability of coking coal futures needs further observation [36].
供应预期减弱，焦煤震荡回调
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-11-21 09:00