金信期货观点-20251121

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The crude oil price is expected to show a weak and volatile trend due to the end of the demand peak season, increased inventory accumulation in the US, and concerns about supply disruptions from geopolitical frictions [3]. - The PX price is expected to fluctuate following the crude oil price, with a short - term supply - demand balance. PTA is likely to have a small inventory build - up before the year - end and will mainly follow the cost - end fluctuations [3][7]. - The domestic ethylene glycol (MEG) futures price is expected to run weakly due to factors such as increased supply expectations, weakening cost support, and high inventory [4]. - The prices of pure benzene (BZ) and styrene (EB) may not have sustainable rebounds as their fundamentals have limited positive factors and the cost - end oil price is under pressure [4]. 3. Summary by Product Crude Oil - OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspend production increases in Q1 2026. The next meeting is on November 30. The demand peak season has ended, and US crude oil inventory accumulation has increased. Geopolitical frictions may limit Russian oil exports and support the oil price. The market consensus on future supply surplus leads to an expected weak and volatile price [3]. PX & PTA - PX: The domestic overall load remains high, with a weekly average domestic capacity utilization rate of 89.21% (-0.36% week - on - week) and an Asian average of 79.79% (+0.06% week - on - week). The PX - naphtha spread is stable at around $250/ton. With limited fourth - quarter maintenance and no new domestic capacity in H1 2026, and positive factors for terminal demand, the supply - demand is stable, and the price is expected to follow the crude oil price [3][7]. - PTA: Two sets of devices were shut down for maintenance this week, with the weekly operating rate dropping to 74.29%. Polyester load remained high, and sales volume increased. Before the implementation of substantial policies, there is an expectation of a small inventory build - up due to increased supply and weak demand before the year - end. The processing margin is still low, and it is expected to follow the cost - end fluctuations [3][13]. MEG - The overall domestic load decreased slightly, but new plant trials increased supply expectations. The cost support from crude oil and coal weakened. Coal - based MEG profit shrank, and the operating rate decreased. After the "Double Eleven", the downstream polyester operating load is expected to decline, and the port inventory has been accumulating. The high inventory will suppress the price, and the price is expected to run weakly [4][18]. BZ & EB - BZ: The domestic load decreased, but the port inventory increased significantly. The import volume is expected to remain high, and downstream profits are generally in deficit. Although the North American blending demand has improved, the overall demand is weak. - EB: The weekly operating rate decreased slightly, with new plant launches and some restarts. There are planned maintenance in the second half of the month. The port inventory decreased, but the expected arrival volume in the second half of the month will increase. The downstream 3S operating rate increased slightly, but the overall inventory is high. The price rebound may not be sustainable [4][26]. Polyester - The average weekly capacity utilization rate of the domestic polyester industry was 87.59% (+0.07% week - on - week). Polyester staple fiber and filament had a small inventory build - up. The comprehensive operating rate of the Jiangsu and Zhejiang chemical fiber weaving industry was 67.69% (-0.30% from the previous period), and the average terminal weaving order days decreased to 13.54 days (-0.95 days). The new order growth is weak, and the market activity has declined [22].