预计钢矿继续维持震荡走势

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The steel and ore markets are expected to continue their oscillatory trends. For steel, the supply - demand situation is weak, and for ore, various factors lead to an expected oscillatory trend. A short - term trading strategy of short - term operations is recommended [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - Production and Inventory: The production of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and the five major steel products increased this period. The inventory of all decreased, with rebar's inventory reduction being more significant and hot - rolled coil's less so. The current social inventory of hot - rolled coil is still high. The total supply of the five major steel products was 849.91 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.53 million tons (1.9% increase). The total inventory was 1433.1 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 44.25 million tons (3% decrease). The weekly consumption was 894.16 million tons, with building material consumption increasing by 5.3% and plate consumption increasing by 3.2% week - on - week [5][11]. - Profitability and Cost: Electric - arc furnace steel is still at a loss. The steel mill profitability rate continued to decline to 37.66%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.3%. The cost side has strong support [5]. - Price Forecast: It is expected that rebar and hot - rolled coil will continue to oscillate. The resistance level of the rebar main contract is 3230, and the support level is 3000. The resistance level of hot - rolled coil is 3450, and the support level is 3200 [5]. Iron Ore - Production and Inventory: The daily pig iron output this week was 2.3628 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.6 million tons, and it is expected to fall below 2.3 million tons. The iron ore port inventory at 45 ports was 150.54 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 750,000 tons. The domestic iron ore arrival is low, but the shipment is active. The overseas port inventory is at the highest level since the fourth quarter. Mysteel statistics show that the daily average fine powder output of 186 domestic mining enterprises was 475,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 960,000 tons. The mining fine powder inventory was 758,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 162,000 tons [5][15]. - Price Forecast: It is expected that iron ore will continue to oscillate. The resistance level of the main 2601 contract is 833, and the support level is 750 [5]. Important News - On November 19, 2025, the mobilization meeting for the inspection of Beijing by the First Central Ecological and Environmental Protection Inspection Team was held, and all 10 inspection teams of the fifth batch of the third round achieved inspection entry [6]. - According to the latest production schedule data from Aowei Cloud Network, the domestic sales production schedule of air conditioners in December is 4.822 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 22.6%; the export production schedule is 9.074 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2% [6]. - The National Bureau of Statistics shows that China's automobile production in October was 3.279 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11.2% [6]. - According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, in October 2025, China exported 5.97 million tons of steel plates, a year - on - year decrease of 22.6%; from January to October, the cumulative export was 60.45 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.5% [6]. - In October 2025, the national crude steel production was 72 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.1%, with a daily output of 2.3226 million tons/day, a month - on - month decrease of 5.2%; pig iron production was 65.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9%, with a daily output of 2.1145 million tons/day, a month - on - month decrease of 4%; steel production was 118.64 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%, with a daily output of 3.8271 million tons/day, a month - on - month decrease of 7.6%. From January to October, the cumulative national crude steel production was 818 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9%, with a cumulative daily output of 2.6904 million tons; pig iron production was 711 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%, with a cumulative daily output of 2.34 million tons; steel production was 1.218 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%, with a cumulative daily output of 4.0052 million tons [6]. - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment stated that after approval by the Party Central Committee and the State Council, the fifth batch of the third - round central ecological and environmental protection inspections have been fully launched. Routine inspections will be carried out on Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, and multiple central enterprises such as Ansteel Group Co., Ltd., China Baowu Steel Group Co., Ltd., and China National Coal Group Co., Ltd., with an inspection entry period of one month [6].