Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - On Friday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, decreasing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly declining. The closing price slightly dropped by 0.59% to 15,240 yuan/ton. After the weakening of macro - driving factors, the domestic rubber market returned to a market dominated by supply - demand fundamentals [6]. - On Friday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of decreasing volume and positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The closing price slightly decreased by 0.35% to 2,004 yuan/ton. The current domestic methanol futures are dominated by weak supply - demand fundamentals [6]. - On Friday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume and positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The closing price slightly decreased by 1.67% to 447.4 yuan/barrel. The bearish atmosphere has intensified. With the game between supply surplus and seasonal demand recovery, and the interference of geopolitical factors, the oil price rebound is blocked and may fluctuate widely [6]. Summary of Each Section 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of November 16, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 452,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,100 tons or 0.70%. The bonded area inventory decreased by 1.76% to 66,600 tons, and the general trade inventory increased by 1.13% to 386,000 tons. The inbound and outbound rates of both bonded and general trade warehouses decreased [9]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.63 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.40 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.56 percentage points. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will recover next week, but the overall demand improvement is limited [9]. - In October 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.359 million and 3.322 million respectively, a month - on - month increase of 2.5% and 3%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.1% and 8.8%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative production and sales were 27.692 million and 27.687 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13.2% and 12.4%. In October 2025, the heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 40% [10]. Methanol - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 83.77%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.17%, a month - on - month slight increase of 1.06%, and a year - on - year slight increase of 4.08%. The average weekly methanol output was 2.0142 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 38,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 70,700 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 134,000 tons [11]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 31.28%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.05%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 5.31%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.96%. The acetic acid operating rate was 66.53%, a week - on - week increase of 2.89%. The MTBE operating rate was 58.91%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.67%, a week - on - week increase of 0.85 percentage points [11]. - As of November 21, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures profit was 316 yuan/ton, a week - on - week slight increase of 7 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant rebound of 537 yuan/ton. As of the week of November 21, 2025, the methanol inventory in East and South China ports was 1.2439 million tons, and the inland methanol inventory was 358,700 tons [11][12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of November 14, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 417, a week - on - week increase of 3, and a year - on - year decrease of 61. The average daily crude oil production was 13.834 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 28,000 barrels/day and a year - on - year significant increase of 633,000 barrels/day [12]. - As of the week of November 14, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 424.2 million barrels, a week - on - week significant decrease of 3.426 million barrels and a year - on - year significant decrease of 6.137 million barrels. The Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 698,000 barrels week - on - week, and the strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 533,000 barrels week - on - week [13]. - As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions of WTI crude oil was 102,958 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 4,249 contracts and a significant decrease of 19,105 contracts from the August average, a decrease of 15.65%. As of November 11, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds was 164,578 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 11,817 contracts and a significant increase of 45,167 contracts from the October average, an increase of 37.82% [13]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,850 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 15,240 yuan/ton | - 10 yuan/ton | - 390 yuan/ton | +10 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,017 yuan/ton | +12 yuan/ton | 2,004 yuan/ton | - 12 yuan/ton | +13 yuan/ton | +12 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 425.7 yuan/barrel | - 0.2 yuan/barrel | 447.4 yuan/barrel | - 8.1 yuan/barrel | - 21.7 yuan/barrel | +7.9 yuan/barrel | [14] 3. Related Charts - Rubber: Charts include rubber basis, 1 - 5 month spread, SHFE rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [15][17][23] - Methanol: Charts include methanol basis, 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][30][37] - Crude Oil: Charts include crude oil basis, SHFE crude oil futures inventory, U.S. commercial crude oil inventory, U.S. refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [41][43][45]
橡胶甲醇原油：偏空情绪增强，能化偏弱运行
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-11-21 09:12