油厂收购价下调，花生盘面冲高回落

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The peanut market is experiencing a situation where the purchase price of oil mills has been lowered, and the peanut futures price has risen and then fallen. The trading volume of peanuts has increased, with prices in different regions showing mixed trends. The import volume has significantly decreased, while the oil mill operating rate has slightly increased. The downstream consumption remains weak, and the inventory of oil mills has increased. The report recommends strategies such as selling the pk601 - P - 7600 option, short - selling 01 peanuts on rallies, and conducting reverse arbitrage on the 1 - 5 spread on rallies [5][6]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Option Strategy: Consider selling the pk601 - P - 7600 option strategy [5]. - Trading Logic: The trading volume of peanuts has increased. The price of Henan common peanuts has risen, Shandong's has fallen, and Northeast China's has continued to rise. Imported peanut prices are stable, but the import volume has decreased significantly. The oil mill operating rate has slightly increased. Peanut meal prices are stable, peanut oil prices are weak, and the oil mill's crushing profit has increased. Downstream consumption is still weak, and the oil mill's peanut and peanut oil inventories have increased [6]. - Strategies: Peanuts are in a bottom - oscillating pattern. Short - sell 01 peanuts on rallies and conduct reverse arbitrage on the 1 - 5 spread on rallies [6]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 1. Peanut Price - Domestic Peanuts: The price of peanuts in Henan and Northeast China has risen. In Shandong, the price of large peanuts in Junan has decreased by 0.1 yuan/jin to 3.5 yuan/jin. In Henan, the price of new - season peanuts in Zhengyang has increased by 0.05 yuan/jin to 3.65 yuan/jin. In Liaoning and Jilin, the price of Baisha peanuts has increased by 0.05 yuan/jin to 4.55 yuan/jin [11]. - Oil Mill Oil Peanuts: The purchase price of oil mills has decreased, with most mills still not purchasing. The general purchase price is between 7150 - 7400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week [11]. - Imported Peanuts: The price of imported peanuts is stable. Sudan new rice is 8600 yuan/ton, Senegalese oil peanuts are 7600 yuan/ton, and Indian 50/60 peanuts are reported at 8000 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Domestic Demand - Oil Mill Operating Rate: As of November 20, the operating rate of peanut oil mills this week is 16.61%, a 0.4% increase from last week [15]. - Oil Mill Inventory: This week, the arrival volume at oil mills is 31,400 tons, an increase of 6200 tons from last week. The peanut inventory at oil mills is 54,200 tons, an increase of 7000 tons from last week. The peanut oil inventory is 40,500 tons, the same as last week [15]. 3. Crushing Profit - Crushing Profit: The purchase price of peanut oil mills has decreased, peanut meal prices are stable, and peanut oil prices are weak. As a result, the oil mill's crushing profit is 320 yuan/ton, an increase of 62 yuan/ton from last week [19]. - Peanut Oil Price: The average price of first - class peanut oil is 14,500 yuan/ton, stable compared to last week. The price of small - pressed concentrated sesame oil is 16,300 yuan/ton, also stable [19]. - Peanut Meal: Due to the strong spot price of soybean meal, the price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal is low. The price of peanut meal is stable at 3210 yuan/ton this week, the same as last week [19]. 4. Basis and Spread - Spread: This week, due to the rise and then fall of 01 peanuts, the 1 - 4 spread is strong and stable at around - 40 yuan [26]. - Spot - Futures Price Difference: It has declined [26]. 5. Peanut Import - Peanut Kernel Import: In October, the import of peanut kernels was 35,000 tons. From January to October, the cumulative import was 198,000 tons, a 69% decrease compared to the same period last year [30]. - Peanut Kernel Export: In October, the export of peanut kernels was 14,000 tons. From January to October, the cumulative export was 129,000 tons, a 19% increase compared to the same period last year [30]. - Peanut Oil Import: In October, the import of peanut oil was 43,000 tons. From January to October, the cumulative import of peanut oil was 334,000 tons, a 53% increase compared to last year [30]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Multiple data charts are provided, including the price of peanuts in different regions, the basis and spread of peanuts, import and export data of peanuts and peanut oil, the operating rate of oil mills, inventory data, and the price difference between peanut products and other oilseeds [10][23][29]. However, specific data values have been summarized in the above - mentioned core logic analysis part.