Report Summary - The decline of the double - coking futures market this week was larger than last week. Since November, the coking coal futures market has gradually weakened. Affected by the National Development and Reform Commission's winter supply - guarantee meeting on November 11, the market's expectation of tight supply has loosened, with a large decline on that day. Subsequently, due to the lack of policy - driven expectations, the spot market was affected by the futures market sentiment, and the transaction price weakened synchronously. With the approaching contract change of the main contract, the delivery pressure on the near - month contract increased, and the downward pressure on the futures market intensified. In the short term, the expected increase in supply and the limited restocking by downstream industries due to poor profitability in the steel industry chain have weakened the support for the futures market. However, due to the significant inventory reduction by mining enterprises in the early stage, their inventory pressure is not large, so the downward space for the futures market is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to the stabilization of the futures market. After the fourth price increase of coke was implemented and the price of coking coal declined, the profit of coke enterprises has improved, but the profitability of steel mills has been continuously suppressed. The decrease in the profit rate of steel enterprises will intensify the game between steel and coke enterprises. Steel mills will resist further price increases by coke enterprises, reducing the possibility of further price increases. If the price of coking coal回调s, steel mills may even initiate price cuts to seek profits from coke enterprises. The futures market should focus on the support level of coking coal, as it is significantly affected by the trend of coking coal [6]. Market Focus Fundamental Overview - As of November 18, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.8%, a weekly increase of 0.04 percentage points. Among them, the capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects was 61.11%, a weekly increase of 0.05 percentage points; the capital availability rate of housing construction projects was 53.29%, a weekly increase of 0.05 percentage points. The capital availability rate has stopped declining slightly, and the construction progress of some projects in East China has slightly accelerated, but the number of newly started projects is small. As of November 16, the cumulative import and export freight volume at the Ganqimaodu Port was 35.8326 million tons, including 33.8984 million tons of imported coal. The port has completed 80% of its 2025 cargo volume target, with a remaining gap of about 8.7 million tons for coal. The three major ports will be closed on November 26 for the anniversary of the founding of Mongolia and will resume customs clearance on November 27 [7]. Main Views - The supply of coking coal has increased slightly, but the increase is limited. - The inventory reduction of coking coal has been sluggish, but the absolute inventory pressure is not large. - The willingness of independent coke enterprises to replenish coking coal inventory has weakened, and steel mills maintain just - in - time procurement of raw materials. - The overall coke production is weakly stable. - There is still room for the decline of hot metal production, and the growth space for coke consumption is limited. - The profit of coke enterprises has improved, while the profit of steel mills is under pressure [7]. Multi - and Short - Focus Analysis | Long Factors | Short Factors | | --- | --- | | The increase in coking coal supply is limited, and inventory pressure is not large | The profit rate of steel mills is continuously declining, and there is an expectation of a decline in hot metal production | | As winter storage approaches, downstream industries have an expectation of restocking | The National Development and Reform Commission's winter supply - guarantee meeting has revised the market's expectation of the supply side of coal | | | Due to delivery quality issues, the willingness of near - month long - position holders to take delivery is low | [10] Data Analysis Coking Coal Supply - As of the week of November 21, the operating rate of 523 sample mines was 86.94%, a week - on - week increase of 0.66%, and the daily average output increased by 0.06 million tons to 75.8 million tons. The operating rate of 314 sample coal washing plants was 37.56%, a week - on - week increase of 0.13%, and the daily average output increased by 0.2 million tons to 27.63 million tons. As of the weekly statistics on November 15, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 1.047195 million tons, with a slight decline in the early stage. Overall, the supply of coking coal has increased slightly, but the increase is limited [15]. Coking Coal Inventory - As of the week of November 21, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 1.8592 million tons, an increase of 0.2086 million tons; the clean coal inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants was 3.0283 million tons, an increase of 0.0201 million tons. The coking coal inventory at ports was 2.915 million tons, a decrease of 0.07 million tons. This week, the domestic coking coal supply has increased. Affected by the price decline, downstream restocking has been postponed, and the wait - and - see sentiment is strong. The inventory reduction of upstream enterprises has been sluggish, and inventory has increased significantly in the past two weeks, but the absolute inventory pressure is not large [20]. Coking Coal Procurement by Coke Enterprises - As of November 21, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 10.3819 million tons, a decrease of 0.3078 million tons. Currently, the available inventory days for coke enterprises are 12.45 days, a decrease of 0.31 days from the previous period. The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises was 0.6529 million tons, an increase of 0.0714 million tons. This week, independent coking enterprises have seen an increase in their own coke inventory, and their willingness to replenish coking coal inventory has weakened, maintaining a downward trend in inventory for two consecutive weeks [23]. Coking Coal Procurement by Steel Mills - As of November 21, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 7.9708 million tons, an increase of 0.0691 million tons. The available inventory days were 12.97 days, an increase of 0.1 days from the previous period. The coke inventory was 6.2234 million tons, a decrease of 0.0006 million tons from the previous period, and the available inventory days were 11.05 days, a decrease of 0.01 days from the previous period. Recently, the coking coal inventory of steel mills has slightly increased, but the increase is not large. Steel mills maintain just - in - time procurement, and the overall raw material inventory remains at a relatively low level [27]. Coke Production - As of November 21, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 71.71%, an increase of 0.07% from the previous period, and the daily average output of metallurgical coke was 0.6267 million tons, a decrease of 0.0033 million tons from the previous period; the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 85.23%, an increase of 0.09% from the previous period, and the daily average output of coke was 0.4622 million tons, an increase of 0.0005 million tons from the previous period. This week, the coke production of steel mills and independent coking enterprises has shown a weakly stable trend [28]. Coke Consumption - According to Steel Union data, as of the week of November 21, China's coke consumption was 1.0633 million tons, a decrease of 0.0027 million tons. From the data of 247 steel enterprises, the daily average output of hot metal was 2.3628 million tons, a decrease of 0.006 million tons. This week, the hot metal production has declined compared with last week, approaching the level of the same period last year. From a seasonal perspective, there is still some room for the decline of hot metal production, and the subsequent growth space for coke demand is limited [30]. Profitability of Coke Enterprises and Steel Mills - As of November 14, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 19 yuan/ton. Recently, after the fourth price increase of coke was implemented and the price of coking coal declined, the profit of coke enterprises has improved, but the profitability of steel mills has been continuously suppressed. As of November 21, the profit rate of 247 steel enterprises was 37.66%, a further decline of 1.3% from the previous period. The decrease in the profit rate of steel enterprises will intensify the game between steel and coke enterprises. Steel mills will resist further price increases by coke enterprises, reducing the possibility of further price increases. If the price of coking coal回调s, steel mills may even initiate price cuts to seek profits from coke enterprises [32]. Basis Structure of Double - Coking Futures and Spot - The delivery pressure is emerging, and the basis between futures and spot has widened [34]. Market Outlook - Since November, the coking coal futures market has gradually weakened. Affected by the National Development and Reform Commission's winter supply - guarantee meeting on November 11, the market's expectation of tight supply has loosened, with a large decline on that day. Subsequently, due to the lack of policy - driven expectations, the spot market was affected by the futures market sentiment, and the transaction price weakened synchronously. With the approaching contract change of the main contract, the delivery pressure on the near - month contract increased, and the downward pressure on the futures market intensified. In the short term, the expected increase in supply and the limited restocking by downstream industries due to poor profitability in the steel industry chain have weakened the support for the futures market. However, due to the significant inventory reduction by mining enterprises in the early stage, their inventory pressure is not large, so the downward space for the futures market is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to the stabilization of the futures market [37]. - The coke production of steel mills and independent coking enterprises has shown a weakly stable trend, but the hot metal production has declined compared with last week, approaching the level of the same period last year. From a seasonal perspective, there is still some room for the decline of hot metal production, and the subsequent growth space for coke demand is limited. Recently, after the fourth price increase of coke was implemented and the price of coking coal declined, the profit of coke enterprises has improved, but the profitability of steel mills has been continuously suppressed. The decrease in the profit rate of steel enterprises will intensify the game between steel and coke enterprises. Steel mills will resist further price increases by coke enterprises, reducing the possibility of further price increases. If the price of coking coal回调s, steel mills may even initiate price cuts to seek profits from coke enterprises. The futures market should focus on the support level of coking coal, as it is significantly affected by the trend of coking coal [40].
焦煤焦炭周度报告-20251121
Zhong Hang Qi Huo·2025-11-21 09:39