Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-21 10:18Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The SA2601 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, with a recommended focus range of 1130 - 1210. The FG2601 is expected to oscillate bearishly, with a recommended focus range of 950 - 1050 [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - Market Review: As of November 20, the soda ash futures dropped 4.4%, and the glass futures fell 4.46%. Soda ash futures declined due to insufficient demand, and glass futures continued to fall due to poor real - estate demand [6]. - Market Outlook: For soda ash, the supply side is in a capacity expansion phase. The 1 - million - ton natural soda project of Yuanning Energy's Alxa Base entered the commissioning stage in mid - November, and other expansion projects are in progress. Although there was a temporary inventory reduction, the inventory pressure remains high. The demand side is weak, with the float glass industry (accounting for about 60% of soda ash demand) being sluggish and the new capacity release of photovoltaic glass slowing down. The cost support is weakening. For glass, the supply side faces capacity release pressure and high inventory. The demand side shows seasonal weakness, with poor real - estate completion demand and low orders from deep - processing enterprises. The cost does not provide substantial support [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Prices: As of November 20, 2025, the closing price of soda ash futures was 1158 yuan/ton, and that of glass futures was 989 yuan/ton [12]. - Spot Prices and Basis: As of November 20, 2025, the spot price of soda ash in the Shahe market was 1130 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 28 yuan/ton. The spot price of glass in the Shahe market was 989 yuan/ton, and the basis was 11 yuan/ton. The soda ash - glass spread was 169 yuan/ton. All spreads are expected to weaken next week [17][23][27]. 3.3 Industry Chain Analysis - Soda Ash Production: As of November 20, 2025, the national soda ash operating rate was 82.68%, a 2.12% decline from the previous period, and the weekly output was 72.09 tons, a 2.48% decline. The output is expected to decrease next week [34]. - Inventory: As of November 20, 2025, the inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises was 164.44 tons, a 0.44% decline, and the inventory of glass enterprises was 63.303 million weight boxes, a 0.09% increase [40]. - Profit: As of November 20, 2025, the theoretical profit of soda ash by the dual - ton joint - alkali method was - 235 yuan/ton, and the cost was 1876 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of soda ash by the ammonia - alkali method was - 120 yuan/ton, and the cost was 1395 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 206.84 yuan/ton, a 10.19% decline; using coal - made gas was 25.79 yuan/ton, a 49.68% decline; using petroleum coke was 8.52 yuan/ton, a decline [45]. - Glass Production: As of November 20, 2025, there were 296 glass production lines (excluding zombie lines), with 221 in production and 75 cold - repaired. The national float glass output was 111.02 tons, a 0.33% decline from the previous period, and the output is expected to remain low next week [49]. - Photovoltaic Glass: As of November 20, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of photovoltaic glass enterprises was 68.35%, unchanged from the previous period, and the daily melting volume was 89380 tons/day, unchanged from the previous period. Both are expected to weaken next week [53]. - Downstream Demand: As of November 17, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 9.9 days, indicating low demand [57].