瑞达期货甲醇市场周报-20251121

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the port methanol market continued to decline. The core contradiction of oversupply at the port remained unchanged, and the market lacked driving forces for improvement due to multiple negative factors such as abundant supply and weak downstream demand. In the near term, the overall methanol production increased as the output from restored production capacity exceeded the loss from maintenance and production cuts. The inventory of inland enterprises continued to decline, and the port inventory decreased. The short - term port - to - inland arbitrage space may remain open, and the high inventory may continue to suppress the port methanol market. The olefin industry's operating rate increased slightly this week and is expected to remain stable next week. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1970 - 2050 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: This week, the port methanol market declined. The price in Jiangsu and Guangdong fluctuated between 1970 - 2090 yuan/ton. Inland supply shortages briefly improved local transactions, but the core contradiction of port oversupply remained [7]. - Market Outlook: Domestic methanol production increased. Inland enterprise inventory declined, and port inventory decreased. The short - term port - to - inland arbitrage space may remain open, and the high inventory may continue to suppress the market. The olefin industry's operating rate increased slightly this week and is expected to remain stable next week [7]. - Strategy Recommendation: The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1970 - 2050 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - Price Movement: This week, the price of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract fluctuated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 2.48% [10]. - Inter - delivery Spread: As of November 21, the MA 1 - 5 spread was - 134 [15]. - Position Analysis: As of November 20, the number of Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts was 6,581, a decrease of 4,998 from last week [24]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - Domestic Spot Price: As of November 20, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang area was 2,007.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52.5 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 1,960 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.5 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest was 47.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - Foreign Spot Price: As of November 20, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 233 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6 US dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 84 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4 US dollars/ton from last week [32]. - Basis: As of November 20, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 8.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13.5 yuan/ton from last week [36]. 3.3 Industry Chain Analysis 3.3.1 Upstream - Coal and Natural Gas Prices: As of November 19, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5,500 kcal was 700 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of November 20, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 4.49 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.1 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [40]. 3.3.2 Industry - Production and Operating Rate: As of November 20, China's methanol production was 2,014,185 tons, an increase of 41,210 tons from last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 88.77%, a month - on - month increase of 2.09% [43]. - Inventory: As of November 19, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 358,700 tons, a decrease of 10,600 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.86%; the sample enterprises' orders to be delivered were 246,300 tons, an increase of 900 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.37%. The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1,479,300 tons, a decrease of 64,300 tons from the previous data. Both the East and South China regions saw inventory decreases [49]. - Import Volume and Profit: In October 2025, China's methanol import volume was 1.6126 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.01%. From January to October 2025, China's cumulative methanol import volume was 11.2793 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.10%. As of November 20, the methanol import profit was - 12 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.96 yuan/ton from last week [52]. 3.3.3 Downstream - Operating Rate: As of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 90.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.12%. The load of East China olefin enterprises was slightly adjusted, and the overall weekly average operating rate increased slightly [55]. - Profit: As of November 20, the domestic methanol - to - olefin spot profit was - 448 yuan/ton, an increase of 43 yuan/ton from last week [58].