Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-21 10:43Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - A-share major indices tumbled this week, with all but the Shanghai Composite Index dropping over 5%. The four stock index futures also declined collectively, with small and mid-cap stocks performing weaker than large-cap blue-chip stocks. The market's trading activity decreased significantly compared to last week. The 10-year economic growth continued the slowdown trend of the third quarter, and some economic indicators were notably affected by the external environment. The inflation level rebounded slightly, but its sustainability remains to be seen. It is expected that the economy will continue a weak recovery in the fourth quarter, which will support the bond market [7]. Summary by Directory This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Recommendations Stocks - This week, A-share major indices and four stock index futures all fell. The market was in a data and news vacuum from Monday to Wednesday, with stock indices moving randomly. On Thursday, the unchanged LPR weakened market expectations of a reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate reduction this year, causing A-shares to open high and close low. On Friday, the overnight slump in US technology stocks dragged down Asian-Pacific stocks. The trading activity declined significantly compared to last week. The allocation recommendation is to go long on dips [7]. Bonds - In October, the economic growth continued to slow down, and some economic indicators were affected by the external environment. The inflation level rebounded slightly, and it is expected that the economy will continue a weak recovery in the fourth quarter, supporting the bond market. The central bank will maintain a moderately loose policy tone, and the scope for further monetary easing this year is limited. The allocation recommendation is range-bound operation [7]. Commodities - China's October economic data, especially the continuous weakening of fixed asset investment, pressured industrial products. However, gold and crude oil showed a volatile trend. The subsequent commodity index is expected to enter a wide-range oscillation. The allocation recommendation is to mainly wait and see [7]. Foreign Exchange - The US government shutdown-delayed September non-farm payroll report was controversial. Fed officials' overall tone was neutral to hawkish, potentially supporting the US dollar. The euro weakened due to the strengthening US dollar, but the eurozone's fundamental situation continued to improve. The allocation recommendation is to cautiously wait and see [7]. Important News and Events - China notified Japan of the suspension of Japanese aquatic product imports. The Chinese government expressed dissatisfaction with Japan's wrong remarks on Taiwan and warned of countermeasures [13]. - Premier Li Qiang met with WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, calling for free trade and reduced trade barriers, and proposed strengthening security cooperation and technological exchanges within the SCO [13]. - The Chinese and Japanese foreign affairs departments held consultations, with China expressing dissatisfaction with the results and demanding that Japan retract its wrong remarks [13]. - The Fed's October meeting minutes revealed significant internal differences on interest rate cuts. Most officials supported maintaining the interest rate unchanged this year, while some advocated a more relaxed rate policy. There was almost unanimous agreement to stop the quantitative tightening (QT) of reducing the balance sheet [14]. - The US modified the rules for patent invalidation applications, targeting foreign-backed enterprises. China will take measures to safeguard the legitimate rights of Chinese enterprises [14]. - The Dutch government suspended the administrative order against Nexperia. China welcomed the move but hoped for a complete solution to the semiconductor supply chain issue [14]. This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data United States - The US 9-month unemployment rate reached 4.4%, the highest in four years. The number of new jobs significantly exceeded expectations, but the previous data was revised downward. Fed officials were divided on interest rate cuts, and the probability of a December rate cut decreased significantly [11]. Japan - Japan's inflation continued to be high, and the yen was weak. The GDP in the third quarter shrank for the first time in six quarters, and the new government may introduce fiscal stimulus measures [11]. Eurozone - The euro fell to a two-week low due to the strengthening US dollar. The eurozone's October CPI year-on-year growth rate met the policy target, and the European Central Bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged until the end of 2026 [11]. China - The central bank's net open market injection this week was 554 billion yuan. The 11-month LPR remained unchanged, in line with market expectations. The central bank will continue to reform and improve the LPR formation mechanism. If the fourth-quarter economic growth is significantly lower than expected, there is still room for LPR cuts [12]. Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Events - Next week, important economic data from Germany, the United States, the eurozone, Japan, and France will be released, including GDP, retail sales, unemployment rates, and CPI [78].