股指期货周报-20251121

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A - share major indices tumbled collectively this week, with all but the Shanghai Composite Index dropping over 5%. The four stock - index futures also declined, and small - and medium - cap stocks were weaker than large - cap blue - chip stocks. The market was in a data and news vacuum from Monday to Wednesday, with stock indices showing a random walk. On Thursday, the unchanged LPR weakened market expectations of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year, leading to a high - opening and low - closing situation for A - shares. On Friday, the overnight plunge in US tech stocks dragged down Asia - Pacific stock markets. Market trading activity significantly declined compared to last week. Domestically, economic fundamentals were weak in October, and financial data showed a larger decline in M1 growth than M2. The unchanged LPR for six consecutive months reflected a prudent monetary policy, and the market is expected to be in a random walk state with stock indices remaining volatile [5][87]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Futures: IF2512 dropped 3.74% this week, IH2512 fell 2.77%, IC2512 declined 5.15%, and IM2512 decreased 4.80%. Spot: The CSI 300 dropped 3.77%, the SSE 50 fell 2.72%, the CSI 500 declined 5.78%, and the CSI 1000 decreased 5.80% [8]. 3.2 News Overview - The Fed's October policy meeting minutes showed a split among policymakers on last month's interest - rate cut. Many officials thought it "might be appropriate" to keep rates unchanged for the rest of 2025, while some believed a December rate cut "would likely be appropriate". There was near - unanimity on stopping the quantitative tightening (QT) of balance - sheet reduction. The LPR remained unchanged on November 20. US September non - farm payrolls increased by 119,000, more than twice the expected figure, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021. The number of initial jobless claims last week dropped by 8,000 to 220,000, and the number of continued claims reached a four - year high [11][12]. 3.3 Weekly Market Data 3.3.1 Domestic and Overseas Major Indices - Domestic: The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 3.90%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 5.13%, the STAR 50 declined 5.54%, the SME 100 decreased 5.10%, and the ChiNext Index dropped 6.15%. Overseas (as of Thursday): The S&P 500 dropped 2.90%, the UK's FTSE 100 fell 1.76%, the Hang Seng Index declined 5.09%, and the Nikkei 225 decreased 3.48% [15][16]. 3.3.2 Industry Sector Performance - Industry sectors all declined, with the power equipment and comprehensive sectors weakening significantly. Industry main funds generally had a net outflow, with a large net outflow from the power equipment sector and a small net inflow in the communication sector [19][23]. 3.3.3 Other Market Data - SHIBOR short - term interest rates first rose and then fell, with the capital price at a low level. This week, major shareholders had a net secondary - market reduction of 11.471 billion yuan, and the market value of restricted - share unlockings was 100.946 billion yuan. Northbound funds had a total trading volume of 814.515 billion yuan. The basis of IF and IH main contracts weakened slightly, while the basis of IC and IM main contracts converged [27][30][38]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - A - share major indices and the four stock - index futures declined this week. The domestic economic fundamentals were weak in October, and the unchanged LPR for six consecutive months reflected a prudent monetary policy. The market is in a vacuum of macro - data, earnings, and policies, and is expected to show a random walk with stock indices remaining volatile [87].