铝产业链周度报告-20251121

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - situation shows that US non - farm data is mixed, the market awaits more data, and Fed officials' speeches are mostly hawkish. The market's bet on further rate cuts in December has declined, the US dollar index is under pressure, and risk preference has decreased. The domestic electrolytic aluminum industry has stable supply and demand characteristics, with inventory reduction. The aluminum market's fundamentals have few contradictions, and aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate. The long - term trend of Shanghai aluminum is affected by the macro - situation, and it is recommended to buy on dips [6]. - The aluminum market has both bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include stable domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity, improved demand and inventory reduction, and tight overseas aluminum supply. Bearish factors are the reduced expectation of Fed rate cuts in December and weak risk preference [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - US non - farm employment data in September was mixed. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021. The market is waiting for more data, and Fed officials' speeches are mostly hawkish, reducing the market's expectation of rate cuts in December. The US dollar index is under pressure, and risk preference has decreased [6][11]. - The People's Bank of China kept the one - year and five - year loan prime rates (LPR) unchanged for six consecutive months. The State Council is promoting "two - heavy" construction and consumption - promoting policies [6][15]. - The domestic electrolytic aluminum industry has stable production capacity, and the supply is stable. The demand shows seasonal characteristics, and the inventory has decreased. The fundamentals of aluminum have few contradictions, and aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate. Shanghai aluminum's trend is affected by the macro - situation, and it is recommended to buy on dips [6]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors for aluminum: Stable domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity in December, improved demand and inventory reduction, and tight overseas aluminum supply [9]. - Bearish factors for aluminum: Reduced expectation of Fed rate cuts in December and weak risk preference [9]. 3.3 Data Analysis - Aluminum Bauxite: In October, the national aluminum bauxite production was 477.23 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%. The supply in Henan has recovered, but that in Shanxi is still tight. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea on imports is ending, and the import volume in December is expected to increase [17][20]. - Alumina: In October, the output of metallurgical - grade alumina was 778.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.4% and a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. The operating capacity is at a high level but has slightly decreased. The production profit of some enterprises has turned negative, and it is expected that the alumina price will fluctuate at a low level [24]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: In October 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.13% year - on - year and 3.52% month - on - month. The aluminum water ratio increased. In November, due to environmental protection policies and seasonal consumption weakness, the aluminum water ratio is expected to decline [27]. - Aluminum Processing: The average weekly operating rate of processing enterprises increased by 0.4% to 62%. Each downstream sector is in a weak state, and downstream procurement is mainly for rigid demand [31]. - Inventory: LME aluminum inventory decreased slightly to 544,075 tons, and SHFE aluminum inventory increased by 1.38% to 114,899 tons. As of November 17, the electrolytic aluminum inventory in major Chinese markets was 637,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons from last Thursday. The aluminum ingot social inventory has been fluctuating, and the current inventory level is not high [42][45]. - Price and Premium: On November 20, the average price premium of Shanghai Wuma aluminum was stable at - 10 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum 0 - 3 premium widened to - 31.16 US dollars/ton [49]. - Recycled Aluminum: In October, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 645,000 tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons month - on - month. The operating rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry increased to 60.5% as of November 13, a week - on - week increase of 1.4% [53][57]. - Unwrought Aluminum Alloy: In September 2025, the import of unwrought aluminum alloy was about 82,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12,500 tons (13.2%). It is expected that the import increase in October will be limited and lower than the same period last year [61]. - Aluminum Alloy Inventory: As of November 21, the weekly social inventory of Chinese aluminum alloy was 75,200 tons, an increase of 3,100 tons from last week, and the factory inventory was 57,900 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from last week [66]. 3.4后市研判 - Aluminum Alloy: The cost of cast aluminum is affected by the tight supply of scrap aluminum, and the demand has resilience. The short - term price of aluminum alloy is expected to stabilize and fluctuate [67]. - Shanghai Aluminum: The recent trend of Shanghai aluminum is greatly affected by the macro - situation. It is expected that the adjustment will continue, and the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to buy on dips [69].