Report Summary - During the period from November 19th to November 25th, 2025, rainfall in the main Southeast Asian natural rubber producing areas increased compared to the previous cycle. High-precipitation areas north of the equator were mainly concentrated in Vietnam and southern Thailand, while most other areas had low precipitation, increasing the impact on rubber tapping. South of the equator, high-precipitation areas were mainly in western Indonesia and western Malaysia, with medium rainfall in most other areas, also increasing the impact on rubber tapping [5]. - The synthetic rubber market remained volatile this week. On Friday, the market was significantly affected by the macro environment. Due to the non-farm payroll data, the Fed's interest rate cut expectation weakened, putting pressure on global financial assets and affecting commodity sentiment. Fundamentally, domestic rubber producing areas are gradually entering the production reduction and suspension period, and overseas main producing areas are easily affected by rainfall, resulting in limited raw material supply and stable to slightly stronger prices, providing cost support for rubber. Natural rubber inventories increased slightly overall, while inventories in Qingdao Free Trade Zone decreased slightly, with overall inventory pressure not significant. The supply-demand contradiction of synthetic rubber is more prominent than that of natural rubber. Since this year, the capacity expansion of butadiene and synthetic rubber has accelerated, with supply at a relatively high level. Recently, the capacity utilization rates of both all-steel and semi-steel tire enterprises have declined, especially the semi-steel tire enterprises, showing the seasonal off-season effect. The overall tire inventory reduction pressure is large, suppressing the overall tire capacity utilization rate. The supply-demand imbalance has put obvious pressure on the butadiene rubber market. Overall, the natural rubber market lacks prominent contradictions and is likely to move in a volatile manner. Synthetic rubber prices are likely to be weak due to supply-demand mismatch, but the short-term stabilization of butadiene prices provides some support below. Attention should be paid to the widening spread between natural rubber and synthetic rubber [6]. - In October 2025, China's natural rubber (including technical classification, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) imports were 510,800 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 14.27% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.2281 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 17.27% [7]. - In September, the US non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000, more than twice the expected figure, but the non-farm payrolls in July and August were revised down by a total of 33,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4% in September, the highest since October 2021. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 8,000 to 220,000, and the number of continuing jobless claims reached a four-year high. After the data release, swap contracts continued to show that the possibility of a Fed rate cut in December was low [7]. Bull and Bear Focus - Bullish factors include that natural rubber inventory pressure is not obvious and natural rubber raw material prices are supported. Bearish factors include the weakening of tire enterprise operating rates and the weakening of the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, which puts pressure on financial assets [10]. Data Analysis - As of November 20th, the price of Thai raw material latex was 57 Thai baht per kilogram, slightly up from last week. The price of latex in Yunnan was 13,900 yuan per ton, and the raw material price in Hainan was 13,000 yuan per ton, remaining stable from last week. Domestic rubber producing areas are gradually entering the production reduction and suspension period, and overseas main producing areas are easily affected by rainfall, resulting in limited raw material supply and stable to slightly stronger prices, providing cost support for rubber [11]. - As of November 16th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 452,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3,100 tons or 0.70%. The bonded area inventory was 66,600 tons, a decrease of 1.76%, and the general trade inventory was 386,000 tons, an increase of 1.13%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses decreased by 0.05%, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.53%. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 1.37%, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.71%. As of November 16th, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.062 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 5,000 tons or 0.5%. China's total social inventory of dark rubber was 670,000 tons, an increase of 0.8%. China's total social inventory of light rubber was 392,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.01% [14]. - This week, the price of butadiene, the raw material for butadiene rubber, continued to rebound. Although both the production and inventory of butadiene increased, the price had fallen to the lowest level of the year, attracting some buyers to enter the market at low prices. In addition, the short-term upward trend in the market stimulated the "bottom-fishing" sentiment of downstream buyers, and the trading atmosphere improved significantly. At the same time, the good performance of the main downstream products boosted butadiene, and suppliers raised prices, gradually reducing the low-price supply in the market and pushing up the trading center. However, as the price increased, sellers were more willing to sell, and some high-price transactions began to face resistance. As of November 20th, the delivered price in the central Shandong region was 7,480 - 7,600 yuan per ton, and the ex-tank self-pickup price in East China was around 7,100 yuan per ton. As of the week of November 21st, the theoretical production profit of butadiene rubber was 788.2857 yuan per ton, an increase of 181.43 yuan per ton from last week. The price of butadiene rubber moved in tandem with the raw material butadiene price, and the production enterprise's profit continued to improve [15]. - According to Steel Union data, as of the week of November 21st, the production of high-cis butadiene rubber was 29,166 tons, an increase of 1,090 tons from last week. The in-plant inventory of butadiene rubber was 26,630 tons, an increase of 780 tons from last week, and the trader inventory was 4,880 tons, a decrease of 90 tons from last week. This week, enterprises had good production profits and high willingness to operate, with production remaining at a high level. However, downstream buyers were resistant to the price, and the trading atmosphere weakened, resulting in poor inventory reduction in the factory [18]. - As of the week of November 21st, the capacity utilization rate of all-steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, a month-on-month decrease of 2.25% but a year-on-year increase of 1.56%. The average inventory available days of sample enterprises were 40.24 days, a month-on-month increase of 0.69 days but a year-on-year decrease of 0.57 days. The capacity utilization rate of semi-steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, a month-on-month decrease of 3.63% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%. The in-plant inventory available days of sample enterprises were 45.86 days, a month-on-month increase of 0.5 days and a year-on-year increase of 7.69 days. This week, the capacity utilization rates of both all-steel and semi-steel tire enterprises declined, especially the semi-steel tire enterprises, showing the seasonal off-season effect. The overall tire inventory reduction pressure is large, suppressing the overall tire capacity utilization rate [19]. - As of November 20th, the spread of the "RU-NR" January contract fluctuated narrowly, and the spread of the "NR-BR" main contract fluctuated, mainly due to the support from the raw material side [21]. Market Outlook - From a macro perspective, due to the non-farm payroll data, the Fed's interest rate cut expectation weakened, putting pressure on global financial assets and affecting commodity sentiment. Fundamentally, domestic rubber producing areas are gradually entering the production reduction and suspension period, and overseas main producing areas are easily affected by rainfall, resulting in limited raw material supply and stable to slightly stronger prices, providing cost support for rubber. Natural rubber inventories increased slightly overall, while inventories in Qingdao Free Trade Zone decreased slightly, with overall inventory pressure not significant. The supply-demand contradiction of synthetic rubber is more prominent than that of natural rubber. Since this year, the capacity expansion of butadiene and synthetic rubber has accelerated, with supply at a relatively high level. Recently, the capacity utilization rates of both all-steel and semi-steel tire enterprises have declined, especially the semi-steel tire enterprises, showing the seasonal off-season effect. The overall tire inventory reduction pressure is large, suppressing the overall tire capacity utilization rate. The supply-demand imbalance has put obvious pressure on the butadiene rubber market. Overall, the natural rubber market lacks prominent contradictions and is likely to move in a volatile manner. Synthetic rubber prices are likely to be weak due to supply-demand mismatch, but the short-term stabilization of butadiene prices provides some support below. Attention should be paid to the widening spread between natural rubber and synthetic rubber [25].
中航期货橡胶周度报告-20251121
Zhong Hang Qi Huo·2025-11-21 10:35