沥青周度报告-20251121

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the asphalt futures market showed a narrow - range oscillation. After a previous sharp decline, there is a rebound repair momentum, and the downward momentum has weakened. The social inventory of asphalt continues to decline. Although demand has entered the off - season, more negative feedback from the demand side is needed for a unilateral decline in the futures market [8]. - In the future, the futures market lacks bullish drivers and is expected to continue a weak trend. As the asphalt downstream enters the off - season, the pressure of supply surplus is emerging. The expectation of crude oil supply surplus exerts long - term pressure on the futures market. Recently, the cease - fire negotiation between Russia and Ukraine is expected to continue, and the geopolitical risk premium has declined. In the short term, after a large decline, there is a rebound repair momentum, but the oil price is under pressure in the short term, and the cost - side support has weakened. It is expected that the futures market will continue a wide - range oscillation [8][51]. - It is recommended to focus on the range of 2900 - 3100 yuan/ton for the BU2601 contract [8][51] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - Market focus: The cease - fire negotiation between Russia and Ukraine is expected to continue, and the geopolitical risk premium has declined; the US EIA crude oil inventory decreased this week; the asphalt cracking spread decreased month - on - month [7]. - Key data: As of November 19, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 24.8%, a decrease of 4.2 percentage points from the previous statistical period; as of November 21, the weekly output of domestic asphalt was 44.1 tons, a decrease of 7.3 tons from last week; the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 64.2 tons, a decrease of 0.5 tons from last week; the social inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 79.4 tons, a decrease of 3.1 tons from last week [7] 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors for asphalt: Supply has decreased [11]. - Bearish factors for asphalt: Demand has weakened, and the oil price has declined [11] 3.3 Macro Analysis - The US and Russia are discussing a framework plan to end the conflict. The US envoy met with the Russian envoy in Miami last month to discuss the plan, which requires Ukraine to make major territorial concessions to Russia. The plan has been rejected by Kiev before. The US government is following the model of mediating the cease - fire in Gaza last month [12]. - Russia's response: The Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that Russia has not received any relevant information from the US through official channels. Such news should be evaluated based on official communication rather than media reports [12]. - Zelensky has received the US peace plan draft. The US believes that this plan may bring a breakthrough to the stagnant diplomatic process. Zelensky is expected to talk with President Trump soon [12]. - The discussion between the US and Russia on ending the conflict conveys a short - term change in the US attitude towards Russia. The market expects that the improvement of US - Russia relations will lead to the relaxation of US sanctions on the Russian energy sector, driving the oil price down. However, due to the volatility of US - Russia relations, the driving force is not sustainable, and the oil price generally maintains a wide - range oscillation [12] 3.4 Supply - Demand Analysis Supply - As of November 21, the weekly output of domestic asphalt was 44.1 tons, a decrease of 7.3 tons from last week. Output from local refineries decreased, and that from PetroChina and Sinopec decreased slightly. The refinery operating rate is in a seasonal decline, and supply is expected to continue to decline [13]. - As of November 19, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 24.8%, a decrease of 4.2 percentage points from the previous statistical period. The operating rates in East China and Shandong decreased significantly. As refineries enter the seasonal maintenance period, the operating rate is expected to decline, and the supply pressure will gradually weaken [22] Demand - As of November 21, the weekly shipment volume of domestic asphalt was 37 tons, an increase of 0.8 tons from the previous statistical date. The shipment volume is still at a low level this year. In the north, the low - temperature weather has led to the completion of downstream road construction, and the demand improvement in the south is not obvious. As demand enters the off - season, the shipment volume faces seasonal decline pressure [23]. - As of November 21, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic modified asphalt was 10.59%, a decrease of 0.63 percentage points from last week. The capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt is in a seasonal decline, and it still faces downward pressure as the downstream enters the off - season [26] Inventory - As of November 21, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 64.2 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons from the previous week, mainly due to the decline in enterprise inventory in North China [33]. - As of November 21, the social inventory of domestic asphalt was 79.4 tons, a decrease of 3.1 tons from the previous week, continuing the downward trend since August. Attention should be paid to the subsequent inventory decline speed [40] Spread - As of November 21, the weekly profit of domestic asphalt processing dilution was - 571 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 42 yuan/ton. The domestic asphalt basis was 182 yuan/ton. As of November 19, the asphalt - to - crude - oil ratio was 51.25 [49] 4. Market Outlook - The futures market lacks bullish drivers and is expected to continue a weak trend. As the asphalt downstream enters the off - season, the pressure of supply surplus is emerging. The expectation of crude oil supply surplus exerts long - term pressure on the futures market. Recently, the cease - fire negotiation between Russia and Ukraine is expected to continue, and the geopolitical risk premium has declined. In the short term, after a large decline, there is a rebound repair momentum, but the oil price is under pressure in the short term, and the cost - side support has weakened. It is expected that the futures market will continue a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to focus on the range of 2900 - 3100 yuan/ton for the BU2601 contract [51]