玉米年报：供需略转宽松宽幅震荡运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international corn market in 2025/26 generally shows a loose pattern, with the supply pressure mainly concentrated in the United States. The South American market is in the sowing period, and the expected output is relatively stable, but the La Nina pattern may affect the output. In China, the corn output in 2025/26 has increased significantly, and the overall supply - demand is slightly loose. The corn price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 2,100 - 2,400 yuan/ton [2][34][35] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In 2025, the domestic corn market mainly operated in the bottom - range. It was strong in the first half of the year due to reserve purchases, a sharp reduction in imported grains, and strong feed demand. In the second half, the market declined due to poor breeding profits, weak deep - processing demand, and the start of CGSCC's imported corn auctions, with futures leading the decline of spot prices [4] 3.2 International Corn Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Yield Recovery - In 2025, the international corn market price fluctuated widely at the bottom. The relative planting income of corn increased, and the planting area of major producing countries expanded. The corn output of countries outside China in 2025/26 is expected to reach 991 million tons, an increase of 55.408 million tons compared with 2024/25 [7] 3.2.2 Stable and Increasing Consumption - The corn consumption in major countries is expected to increase steadily in 2025/26. The feed consumption outside China is expected to be 574 million tons, an increase of 21 million tons, and the FSI consumption is 389 million tons, an increase of 8.4 million tons [9] 3.2.3 Rising Carry - over Inventory - The export potential of major producing countries has increased, and the total export volume has increased by 14.95 million tons. The carry - over inventory outside China is expected to be 107 million tons, an increase of 7 million tons compared with the previous year [11] 3.3 Domestic Corn Supply and Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Significant Yield Increase and Looser Balance Sheet - In 2025/26, the corn planting area in China increased slightly to 44.873 million hectares, the yield per unit area increased by 1.4%, and the output reached 300 million tons, an increase of 1.7%. The feed consumption is expected to decline, while the deep - processing consumption is expected to increase by 1.1 million tons. The final balance is 697,000 tons, turning from a deficit to a surplus [14] 3.3.2 Fast Grain - Selling Progress at the Grass - roots Level - As of November 20, 2025, the grain - selling progress of farmers in 13 provinces was 27%, 3 percentage points faster than the same period last year. The progress in Northeast and North China was 22% and 26% respectively, both 3 percentage points faster year - on - year. The grain - selling rhythm may slow down later [17] 3.3.3 Declining Feed Consumption and Recovering Deep - processing Consumption - In 2026, due to the loss of pig and egg - chicken breeding and the policy of reducing production capacity, the feed consumption is expected to decline. The deep - processing consumption is expected to recover due to the weakening impact of imported cassava starch and the use of low - quality corn in North China for alcohol processing [26][30] 3.3.4 Reduced Substitution of Imported Grains and Wheat - In 2024/25, the import of corn and substitute grains decreased significantly. In 2025/26, the import of corn and grains is expected to increase but remain at a low level. The substitution of domestic wheat for corn is expected to decrease [32] 3.4 Conclusion and Outlook - The international corn market in 2025/26 is generally loose, with supply pressure concentrated in the United States. In China, the corn output has increased, feed consumption has declined, and deep - processing consumption has slightly increased. The overall supply - demand is slightly loose, and the corn price is expected to fluctuate widely between 2,100 - 2,400 yuan/ton. The market is expected to be strong in the short - term, decline after mid - December, and strengthen again in May [34][35]