Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-21 10:34Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon's main contract will mainly fluctuate within the range of 8800 - 9400, and polysilicon's main contract will mainly fluctuate in the short - term, with the range of 51000 - 56000 [6]. - Next week, the demand side of industrial silicon remains weak, although some sub - sectors have stable demand, it's difficult to change the overall pattern and restrains price increase. The supply contraction of polysilicon will continue next week, providing some bottom support for prices, but the demand side is also weak and hard to drive price increase [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Key Points Summary - Market Performance: As of November 20, industrial silicon rose 0.61% this week, and polysilicon fell 2.95%. The industrial silicon futures market first rose and then fell. Polysilicon first rose slightly and then declined [6]. - Market Outlook for Industrial Silicon: Supply may further decrease due to the dry season. Organic silicon's actual procurement demand for industrial silicon has decreased, and polysilicon enterprises mainly purchase industrial silicon for rigid needs. The demand for industrial silicon from the aluminum alloy industry is growing steadily but cannot make up for the weakness in other fields [6]. - Market Outlook for Polysilicon: The supply contraction will continue. The demand from the photovoltaic industry shows a differentiated pattern of "weak terminal, stable middle". The overall demand is weak [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price: As of November 20, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was 9075 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon futures price was 52450 yuan/ton [12]. - Spot Price and Basis: Industrial silicon's spot price increased, and the basis increased. As of November 20, 2025, the spot price was 9550 yuan/ton, and the basis was 475 yuan/ton. Polysilicon's spot and futures prices increased, and the basis weakened. As of November 20, 2025, the spot price was 52.3 yuan/kg, and the basis was - 150 yuan/kg [19][26]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: As of November 20, 2025, the national industrial silicon production was about 78,500 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 54.06% [30]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Cost: During November 13 - 20, 2025, the electricity price in the southwest region increased, while that in the northwest remained stable. The cost of industrial silicon increased [35]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of November 20, 2025, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts was 43,297 lots, a decrease of 2369 lots from the previous period [39]. - Organic Silicon: As of November 20, 2025, the weekly production of organic silicon was 47,500 tons (0% increase), and the weekly operating rate was 72.18% (0% increase). The cost, spot price, and profit of organic silicon increased, and the production is expected to remain unchanged [46][52]. - Aluminum Alloy: As of November 20, 2025, the aluminum alloy price was 21,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the inventory was 75,200 tons, an increase of 3100 tons from the previous week. The demand for industrial silicon is expected to weaken [60]. - Silicon Wafer and Battery Cell: As of November 20, 2025, the silicon wafer price was 1.44 yuan/piece, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/piece from the previous week, and the battery cell price was 0.29 yuan/watt, a decrease of 0.00 yuan/watt from the previous week. The demand for polysilicon is expected to be negative [64]. - Polysilicon Cost, Profit, and Inventory: As of November 20, the polysilicon profit was 11,880 yuan/ton, the average cost was 40,888 yuan/ton, and the inventory was 265,700 tons [71].