Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report suggests paying attention to the central bank's policy attitude. In the short - term, there is a lack of bullish drivers in the market, and under weak sentiment, there is a possibility that the TL contract will continue to decline. However, the medium - term fundamentals still provide support, and interest rates need to remain low, so medium - term long positions can still be held [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Conditions - On Friday, Treasury bond futures opened higher but trended lower in the morning and fluctuated in the afternoon, with most varieties closing down, and the TL contract having the largest decline. The funding situation was loose, with DR001 falling to around 1.32%. The open - market reverse repurchase was 375 billion yuan, with a net injection of 162.2 billion yuan [1]. - Affected by the US stock market, the A - share market opened and closed lower and declined significantly today, but the bond market did not benefit. The T, TF, and TS contracts generally remained in a volatile state, while the TL contract has shown obvious declines in recent days, indicating weak trading sentiment [3]. Important Information - In the US, the non - farm payrolls added 119,000 jobs in September, far exceeding expectations, but the employment figures for the previous two months were significantly revised down by 33,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, reaching a four - year high. - The positive performance of NVIDIA's earnings was short - lived. The US stock market tumbled during the session, with the S&P 500 falling more than 3% from its daily high, experiencing the largest intraday reversal since the tariff storm in April. NVIDIA rose more than 5% during the session but closed down more than 3% [2]. Data | Contract | 2025 - 11 - 21 Price | 2025 - 11 - 20 Price | Price Change | 2025 - 11 - 21 Position | 2025 - 11 - 20 Position | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.448 | 102.458 | - 0.01 | 73,816 | 77,399 | - 3,583 | | TF2512 | 105.855 | 105.915 | - 0.06 | 153,244 | 155,300 | - 2,056 | | T2512 | 108.44 | 108.475 | - 0.035 | 279,585 | 280,931 | - 1,346 | | TL2512 | 115.59 | 115.93 | - 0.34 | 176,275 | 181,999 | - 5,724 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0063 | - 0.012 | 0.0057 | | | | | TF Basis (CTD) | 0.0033 | 0.0154 | - 0.0121 | | | | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.0802 | 0.0709 | 0.0093 | | | | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.1601 | 0.1356 | 0.0245 | | | | | TS Main Contract Trading Volume | 29,272 | 38,948 | - 9,676 | | | | | TF Main Contract Trading Volume | 64,448 | 71,725 | - 7,277 | | | | | T Main Contract Trading Volume | 103,001 | 81,803 | 21,198 | | | | | TL Main Contract Trading Volume | 97,822 | 94,348 | 3,474 | | | | [4]
国债期货日报-20251121
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-11-21 10:33