Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-21 10:30Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed Oil: This week, rapeseed oil futures oscillated and closed lower. The 01 - contract closed at 9,816 yuan/ton, down 107 yuan/ton from the previous week. Although the significant decline in Canadian rapeseed exports exerts pressure, the Canadian bio - fuel production incentive plan, with rapeseed oil as the core raw material, and the agreement between Canada and Pakistan to promote rapeseed exports are positive factors. However, the possible delay of the US bio - fuel import incentive cut plan and the inventory pressure of Malaysian palm oil drag down the international oil market. Domestically, the Sino - Canadian trade negotiation has not reached an agreement on rapeseed tariffs. The supply of imported rapeseed is structurally tightened in the near term, and oil mills are mostly shut down, so rapeseed oil will continue to destock, supporting its price. But the ample supply and good substitution advantage of soybean oil limit rapeseed oil demand to mostly rigid demand. The short - term price fluctuation has increased, and short - term trading is recommended [8]. - Rapeseed Meal: This week, rapeseed meal futures continued to decline. The 01 - contract closed at 2,431 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan/ton from the previous week. The unexpected downward adjustment of US soybean exports by USDA triggered selling, but good domestic consumption and Chinese purchases of US soybeans support the US soybean market. Domestically, the Sino - Canadian trade negotiation has not made a breakthrough on rapeseed tariffs, restricting the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal in the near term. With oil mills mostly shut down, the supply pressure is small. However, due to the decline in water temperature, the demand for aquaculture has weakened, and the rigid demand for rapeseed meal has decreased. Also, the ample supply and good substitution advantage of soybean meal have weakened the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of both weak supply and demand. The market has declined recently with increased volatility, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended. Attention should be paid to whether the Sino - Canadian trade policy can make a breakthrough [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Summary - Rapeseed Oil: The 01 - contract price decreased by 107 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The market is affected by both international and domestic factors, with short - term price fluctuations increasing. Short - term trading is recommended [8]. - Rapeseed Meal: The 01 - contract price decreased by 59 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price and Position: Rapeseed oil futures rose significantly at the low level this week, with a total position of 243,824 lots, a decrease of 4,656 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures continued to decline, with a total position of 356,184 lots, a decrease of 116,496 lots from last week [15]. - Top 20 Net Positions: The top 20 net positions of rapeseed oil futures were +4,542, a slight decrease from +5,946 last week. The top 20 net positions of rapeseed meal futures changed from a net long position of +27,455 last week to a net short position of - 10,587 this week [22]. - Futures Warehouse Receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil were 4,033 lots, and those of rapeseed meal were 0 lots [26]. - Spot Price and Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,160 yuan/ton, a slight increase from last week. The basis between the active contract futures price and the Jiangsu spot price was +344 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,420 yuan/ton, a slight decrease from last week. The basis between the Jiangsu spot price and the active contract futures price was - 11 yuan/ton [35][41]. - Futures Inter - monthly Spread: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil was +391 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period in recent years. The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed meal was +64 yuan/ton, at a medium - high level in the same period in recent years [46]. - Futures - Spot Ratio: The 01 - contract ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal was 4.038, and the average spot price ratio was 4.06 [49]. - Price Spread between Oils and Meals: The 01 - contract spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,626 yuan/ton, and that between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 1,266 yuan/ton, both with narrow fluctuations this week. The 01 - contract spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 581 yuan/ton, and the spot spread was 600 yuan/ton as of Thursday [59][65]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - Rapeseed - Supply: As of November 14, 2025, the total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 0.25 tons. The estimated arrival volumes of rapeseed in November, December, and January 2025 were 1, 60, and 36.5 tons respectively. The import rapeseed spot crushing profit was +1,177 yuan/ton as of November 20. The crushing volume of coastal oil mills was 0 tons in the 46th week of 2025, with an operating rate of 0%. The total import volume of rapeseed in September 2025 was 11.53 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 85.71% and a month - on - month decrease of 13.14 tons [71][75][79][83]. - Rapeseed Oil - Supply: As of the end of the 46th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed oil was 48.3 tons, a decrease of 3.3 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 6.40%. The total import volume of rapeseed oil in September 2025 was 15.66 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.99% and a month - on - month increase of 1.90 tons [87]. - Rapeseed Oil - Demand: As of September 30, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 495 tons. As of October 31, 2025, the monthly retail sales of catering were 519.9 billion yuan. As of the end of the 46th week of 2025, the contract volume of imported and crushed rapeseed oil was 3.7 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 9.28% [91][95]. - Rapeseed Meal - Supply: As of the end of the 46th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed meal was 0.2 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 60.0%. The total import volume of rapeseed meal in September 2025 was 15.77 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 29.08% and a month - on - month decrease of 5.57 tons [99][103]. - Rapeseed Meal - Demand: As of September 30, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 3128.7 tons [107]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis As of November 21, the implied volatility of rapeseed meal options was 20.67%, a 0.02% increase from last week, and it was slightly lower than the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [110].