股指黄金周度报告-20251121

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term: Due to the marginal weakening of domestic economic data and the need to digest external negative factors, the stock index will enter an adjustment phase from high - level oscillation; the hawkish speeches of Fed officials have further dampened the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut, and the short - term rebound of gold may continue to adjust [44]. - Medium - to long - term: The valuation of the stock index will still be dragged down by the decline in corporate profit growth at the molecular end, while the support at the denominator end mainly comes from the recovery of risk appetite, and the stock index will maintain a wide - range oscillation in the medium term; with the fading of concerns about the uncertainty of US tariff policies, the easing of the Russia - Ukraine situation, and the narrowing space for further interest rate cuts by the Fed, there is a risk of a deep adjustment in gold [44]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data - From January to October this year, real estate investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year, with the decline expanding for 8 consecutive months; infrastructure investment decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, turning negative for the first time since September 2020; manufacturing investment increased by 2.7% year - on - year, with the growth rate slowing down by 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, hitting a new low since February 2021 [6]. 3.2. Stock Index Fundamental Data 3.2.1. Enterprise Profit and Capital - In October this year, the scale of new loans and social financing declined significantly. The year - on - year growth rate of broad money supply M2 was 8.2%, and that of M1 was 6.2%, down 0.2 and 1 percentage points from the previous month respectively, and the gap between them widened again [19]. - The balance of margin trading in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets slightly declined to 24724.55 billion yuan. The central bank conducted 1676 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, achieving a net investment of 554 billion yuan [23]. 3.3. Gold Fundamental Data 3.3.1. Interest Rate and Inflation - In September, the number of new non - farm jobs in the US was 119,000, far exceeding the expected 50,000. Many Fed officials made hawkish speeches, expressing concerns about high inflation, and the call against further interest rate cuts is rising. The yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds is running at a high level [28]. 3.3.2. Inventory - The warehouse receipts and inventory of Shanghai gold futures are slowing down, and the inventory of COMEX gold in New York is continuously decreasing, reflecting a cooling of the market's bullish sentiment [39]. 3.4. Strategy Recommendation - The economic data in October this year generally weakened, with the year - on - year decline of fixed - asset investment expanding, industrial production slowing down, and the growth rate of consumption declining marginally. In terms of enterprise profits, there is a differentiation among different industries. The decline in profits of upstream raw material processing industries has narrowed, while the profits of high - end and equipment manufacturing industries have maintained rapid growth. However, due to weak terminal demand, downstream enterprises still face great operating pressure [43]. - Considering that the GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year, there is no pressure to achieve the expected annual development target, and the necessity of further strengthening macro - policies at the end of the year has decreased. Influenced by the continuous slump in the external market, there are concerns about the bursting of the technology stock bubble. With the marginal weakening of domestic economic data, the market expectation is gradually returning to reality, and the stock index may enter a phased adjustment in the short term [43]. - The minutes of the Fed meeting released hawkish signals. Many officials are concerned about high inflation and need to be cautious about further interest rate cuts. It implies that without sufficient evidence of an unexpected decline in inflation or continuous weakness in the labor market, the Fed may suspend interest rate cuts at the December meeting. Due to the shutdown of the US federal government, the November non - farm payrolls report has been postponed to December 16, meaning that there will be no new employment data for the Fed's December meeting, and the market has further reduced its bets on a December interest rate cut. In the short term, the internal differences within the Fed on future interest rate policies have increased, and the call against further interest rate cuts is rising, pushing up the US dollar index and the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds, and gold has come under pressure again in the short term [43].