有色金属周度报告-20251121

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, alumina is expected to run in a weak and volatile manner, and Shanghai aluminum will run in a high - level volatile manner, with a suggestion to wait and see; in the long - term, in a quantitative easing environment, Shanghai aluminum will run with a slight upward trend, and alumina will run weakly until large - scale production cuts occur [44] - For copper, in the short - term, the game between bulls and bears intensifies, and it will oscillate in a high - level range; in the long - term, there is long - term positive support for demand, and it is expected to be bullish [47] - Regarding lithium carbonate, in the short - term, there may be repeated high - level oscillations; in the long - term, energy storage provides strong demand support, and it is recommended to allocate bullishly [50] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Main Metal Spot Price Trends - Copper: The futures主力合约 (CU2601) closed at 86,900 on November 7th and 85,660 on November 14th, with a weekly change of - 1,240 and a weekly decline of 1.43%. The spot average price of 1 copper in Shanghai dropped from 87,070 to 85,870, a decline of 1.38% [4] - Aluminum: The futures主力合约 (AL2601) decreased from 21,840 to 21,340, a weekly decline of 2.29%. The spot average price of A00 aluminum in Shanghai dropped from 21,900 to 21,370, a decline of 2.42% [4] - Zinc: The futures主力合约 (ZN2601) decreased slightly by 0.33%, and the spot average price of 0 zinc in Shanghai declined by 0.22% [4] - Lead: The futures主力合约 (PB2601) declined by 1.94%, and the spot average price of 1 lead ingot dropped by 2.01% [4] - Nickel: The futures主力合约 (NI2601) declined by 2.75%, and the spot average price of 1 electrolytic nickel dropped by 2.42% [4] - Alumina: The futures主力合约 (AO2601) declined by 3.86%, and the spot price in Foshan dropped by 0.35% [4] - Industrial silicon: The futures主力合约 (SI2601) declined by 0.67%, while the spot average price of 553 silicon increased by 1.05% [4] - Lithium carbonate: The futures主力合约 (LC2601) increased by 4.19%, and the spot average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) increased by 8.77% [4] - Polysilicon: The futures主力合约 (PS2511) increased by 4.83%, while the spot price of N - type polysilicon remained unchanged [4] 3.2 Copper - related - As of November 21st, SHFE copper inventory was 110,600 tons, a 1.10% increase from last week. As of November 20th, LME copper inventory was 157,900 tons, a 16.36% increase, and COMEX copper inventory was 398,500 tons, a 1.84% increase [14][15] - As of November 21st, the spot TC of copper concentrate was - 41.72 dollars/ton, and the spot RC was - 4.17 cents/pound, with the expectation of tight supply at the mine end remaining [18] 3.3 Lithium - related - As of November 21st, the index of spodumene concentrate (CIF China) was 1,089 dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 83 dollars/ton [20] 3.4 Aluminum - related - Aluminum raw material supply: As of November 21st, the port inventory of bauxite was 2,802.36 million tons, a decrease of 498,700 tons from last week. As of the end of October, the bauxite inventory of alumina plants was at a historical high [25] - Alumina supply: As of November 21st, the operating rate of alumina enterprises was 85.46%, a slight increase, and the total inventory was 488,300 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons from last week [32] - Electrolytic aluminum supply: As of the end of October, China's primary aluminum production was 3,766,000 metric tons, imports were 248,400 tons, inventory was 618,000 tons, and the operating rate was 98.24%, remaining at a high level [35] - Aluminum inventory in the three major exchanges: As of November 20th, LME aluminum inventory decreased by 9,100 tons, SHFE aluminum inventory increased by 1,564 tons, and COMEX aluminum inventory decreased by 604 tons. Overall, electrolytic aluminum inventory showed a downward trend this week [37][38] 3.5 Non - ferrous Metal Demand - In September 2025, automobile production and sales reached 3.276 million and 3.226 million respectively, with month - on - month increases of 16.4% and 12.9%, and year - on - year increases of 17.1% and 14.9%. From January to September 2025, automobile production and sales reached 24.333 million and 24.363 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13.3% and 12.9% [40] - In September 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 23.7% and 24.6%. From January to September 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales reached 11.243 million and 11.228 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 35.2% and 34.9% [40] - From January to September, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6,485.8 million square meters, a 9.4% year - on - year decrease. The new housing start - up area was 453.99 million square meters, a 18.9% decrease, and the housing completion area was 311.29 million square meters, a 15.3% decrease [41] - As of the end of September, the cumulative power generation installed capacity nationwide was 3.72 billion kilowatts, a 17.5% year - on - year increase. Among them, the solar power installed capacity was 1.13 billion kilowatts, a 45.7% increase, and the wind power installed capacity was 580 million kilowatts, a 21.3% increase [41] 3.6 Strategy Recommendations Aluminum - Short - term: Alumina runs weakly and volatilely, and Shanghai aluminum runs in a high - level volatile manner. It is recommended to wait and see [44] - Long - term: In a quantitative easing environment, Shanghai aluminum runs with a slight upward trend; alumina runs weakly until large - scale production cuts occur [44] Copper - Short - term: The game between bulls and bears intensifies, and it oscillates in a high - level range [47] - Long - term: There is long - term positive support for demand, and it is bullish [47] Lithium Carbonate - Short - term: There may be repeated high - level oscillations [50] - Long - term: Energy storage provides strong demand support, and it is recommended to allocate bullishly [50]