国投期货农产品日报-20251121

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bean: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★☆, suggesting a clear bullish trend, and the market is in the process of rallying [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★, representing a more definite bullish trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Soybean Meal: ★★★, showing a more distinct bullish trend, and there are relatively suitable investment opportunities at present [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★★★, indicating a more obvious bullish trend, and there are still relatively good investment opportunities [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★, representing a more definite bullish trend, and there are relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Corn: ★★★, showing a more distinct bullish trend, and there are relatively suitable investment opportunities at present [1] - Live Hogs: ★★★, indicating a more obvious bullish trend, and there are still relatively good investment opportunities [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, keep an eye on the performance of the spot and policy sides of domestic soybeans, and wait for the signing of the latest Sino - US economic and trade agreement and track its implementation [2][3] - Wait for the end of the correction and focus on the opportunity to go long at low prices after stabilization [3] - Continuously monitor the performance of the palm oil supply - demand side and the fluctuations in the macro - situation [4] - Maintain a bearish strategy for the domestic rapeseed sector and pay attention to the interference of foreign bio - fuel policies and economic and trade relationship expectations [6] - Wait for the signing of the specific Sino - US trade agreement and pay attention to the sales progress of new grain in Northeast China [7] - In the medium - term, continue to observe whether the market trading logic returns to the weak spot market or the expected logic, and hold short positions cautiously [9] Summary by Category Bean - The main contract price of bean futures has declined recently, with significant position reduction on the trading floor and a slowdown in the downward trend. The auction of soybeans by Sinograin this week was fully sold, with an average transaction price of 3,900 yuan per ton. Imported US soybeans have been adjusting recently, affected by the weak overall macro - atmosphere and profit - taking [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The main contract of Dalian soybean meal futures M2601 continued to follow the US soybeans, showing a weak and volatile trend. The La Nina phenomenon is expected to last until the Northern Hemisphere winter, and its impact on the soybean yields in Brazil and Argentina needs continuous attention. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, the near - end crushing profit is poor but the loss has narrowed recently. The domestic soybean meal may continue to accumulate inventory [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Commodities generally declined today, the macro - atmosphere was weak, and the market's expectation of further interest rate cuts in December decreased. The international crude oil price dropped, and the international diesel price also tumbled. The supply - demand situation of Malaysian palm oil is still poor, with an expected 10.32% month - on - month increase in production from November 1 - 20 and a 14.13% - 40.62% month - on - month decrease in exports from November 1 - 29. The soybean - palm oil price spread continues to widen, indicating that soybean oil is stronger than palm oil [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed futures prices stopped falling and rebounded slightly. The import volume of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil has decreased year - on - year by 10 - 30%. The market focus is on the variables of rapeseed imports. If the Australian rapeseed arrives in China smoothly, the premium of the rapeseed sector over other competitors may decline [6] Corn - The main contract of Dalian corn futures C2601 rose 1.11% today, breaking through the 2,200 mark at one point. The price of Northeast corn has declined in the past two days, but farmers are reluctant to sell due to the cold weather. The quality of North China corn is poor, and the market prefers high - quality Northeast corn, leading to concerns about future supply and transportation capacity in Northeast China. The previous prediction of a second bottom may turn into a wide - range shock [7] Live Hogs - The live hog futures continued to be weak, with the near - month contract hitting a new low. The spot price declined slightly. In the medium - to - long - term, the pig price is likely to form a second bottom in the first half of next year under the background of continuous supply pressure and off - season demand [8] Eggs - The egg futures fluctuated downward during the day, almost erasing yesterday's gains. The spot price was mostly stable, with slight declines in some areas. The short - term market volatility has increased [9]