银河期货尿素日报-20251121

Group 1: Report Information - The report is an energy and chemical R & D report on urea, dated November 21, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review - Futures market: Urea futures fluctuated and declined, closing at 1654 (-0.7/-0.42%) [3] - Spot market: Factory prices increased slightly, with trading volume being average. Factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1580 - 1600 yuan/ton, Shandong small - sized 1610 - 1620 yuan/ton, Hebei small - sized 1620 - 1630 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - sized 1560 - 1570 yuan/ton, Anhui small - sized 1600 - 1610 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1460 - 1500 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Important Information - On November 21, the daily production of the urea industry was 20.15 tons, 0.1 tons less than the previous working day and 1.34 tons more than the same period last year. The operating rate was 83.33%, 0.1% higher than 83.23% in the same period last year [4] Group 4: Logic Analysis - Short - term: Domestic demand is limited, with agricultural demand ending and compound fertilizer not starting on a large scale. The spot market sentiment is still low. The price difference between domestic and international markets is large, and the new quota issuance increases the impact of the international market on the domestic market. The mainstream delivery area factory price is around 1580 - 1600 yuan/ton, and downstream acceptance has decreased. Some compound fertilizer plants are restocking at low prices, and storage enterprises are purchasing. The urea market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [5] - Medium - term: The impact of the fourth batch of export quotas will fade, domestic autumn fertilizer production will end completely, and overall demand will be weak. As the factory price rises, downstream acceptance will decrease. Recently, commodities have collectively corrected, and the urea fundamentals are still loose. In the medium term, the urea market is expected to be weak [5] Group 5: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short from high levels, do not chase short positions [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6]