高库存压力仍在，甲醇弱势运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The high inventory pressure on methanol remains, and the market is in a weak state. The international device operating rate has increased, with some devices in Iran restarted and daily output rising to around 35,000 tons. The port spot liquidity is sufficient, but the overall trading is light. The US dollar price has been continuously falling, and imports remain in a positive spread situation. The downstream demand is stable, but the port inventory continues to accumulate. Coal prices are stable, coal - to - methanol profits are stable, and domestic supply is abundant. The methanol market is expected to continue its weak trend [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Raw material coal: As of November 20, the coal mine operating rate in Ordos is 76%, and in Yulin is 46%. The coal mines have resumed production, and the daily coal output in Ordos and Yulin is around 4 million tons. The demand is fair, and the pit - mouth price is firm [4]. - Supply: The profit of coal - to - methanol is around 320 yuan/ton, and the methanol operating rate is stable at a high level. Domestic supply is continuously loose. The US dollar price has been falling, and imports remain in a positive spread. The operating rate of non - Iranian devices has increased slightly, and the external market operating rate has risen to a high level [4]. - Demand: The operating rate of MTO devices has rebounded. Some MTO devices are running stable, while some are operating at less - than - full capacity [4]. - Inventory: The port inventory accumulation cycle has ended, and the basis is relatively strong. The inventory of inland enterprises fluctuates slightly. However, with the increase in arrivals and a slight decline in MTO operating rate, the port inventory continues to accumulate [4]. - Trading strategies: For single - side trading, stop - profit on short positions; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach; in the over - the - counter market, sell call options [4]. Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking 2. Core Data Weekly Changes - Supply - Domestic: As of November 20, the overall operating load of domestic methanol devices is 76.25%, a decrease of 0.29 percentage points from last week but an increase of 1.54 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load in the northwest region is 85.76%, an increase of 0.12 percentage points from last week but a decrease of 0.64 percentage points from the same period last year. The average operating load of non - integrated methanol devices is 68.34%, a decrease of 0.40 percentage points from last week [5]. - Supply - International: From November 15 - 21, 2025, the international (excluding China) methanol output is 1,068,585 tons, and the device capacity utilization rate is 73.25%, unchanged from last week [5]. - Supply - Import: From November 13 - 19, 2025, the sample arrival volume of Chinese methanol is 30.94 tons, including 28.87 tons from overseas vessels and 2.07 tons from domestic vessels [5]. - Demand - MTO: As of November 20, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region is 85.31%, an increase of 1.668 percentage points from last week. The national olefin device operating rate is 90.36%, with a slight increase in the weekly average operating rate [5]. - Demand - Traditional: The capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether is 5.69%, a 6.75% increase from the previous period. The capacity utilization rate of acetic acid is 69.59%. The formaldehyde operating rate is 42.01%, with an increase in overall capacity utilization rate [5]. - Demand - Direct Sales: The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region is 8.69 tons, a decrease of 0.19 tons from the previous statistical date, a 2.14% decrease [5]. - Inventory - Enterprise: The production enterprise inventory is 35.87 tons, a decrease of 1.06 tons from the previous period. The order backlog of sample enterprises is 24.63 tons, an increase of 0.09 tons from the previous period, a 0.37% increase [5]. - Inventory - Port: As of November 19, 2025, the total port inventory is 147.93 tons, a decrease of 6.43 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China decreased by 3.86 tons, and in South China by 2.57 tons [5]. - Valuation: The chemical coal in the northwest region is firm, and the methanol price is stable. The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia is around 390 yuan/ton, and in northern Shaanxi is 322 yuan/ton. The MTO loss is narrowing, and the basis is stable [5]. 8. Spot Price - The price of Taicang is 1990 yuan/ton (- 50 yuan), and the price of the northern line is 1960 yuan/ton (- 20 yuan) [8]