国投期货能源日报-20251121

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish or bearish trend with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, with the same implications as crude oil [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, similar to the above [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆, also suggesting a slightly bullish or bearish trend with poor operability [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term multi/empty trend is in a relatively balanced state, and it's better to wait and see [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The cyclical inflection point of oil prices caused by supply contraction has not been seen, and the rebound space of oil prices due to geopolitical factors is limited, with the market trending weakly in a volatile manner [2] - High - sulfur fuel oil is under multiple pressures, and its weak trend is expected to continue, while the low - sulfur fuel oil market fundamentals are strengthening, but the supply rebound risk from the RFCC unit maintenance of the Dangote refinery in Nigeria at the end of December needs attention [2] - The cost support for asphalt is continuously weakening, and the medium - to - long - term fundamentals are bearish [3] - The supply of liquefied petroleum gas has an incremental bearish suppression, and the supply - demand relationship has weakened marginally, causing the LPG trading floor to turn weak [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fell further, with the SC01 contract dropping 1.67% during the day [2] - The geopolitical risk premium between Russia and Ukraine was suppressed, and the rebound space of oil prices due to geopolitical factors is limited, with the market trending weakly in a volatile manner [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Overnight crude oil price drop dragged down the fuel oil market [2] - High - sulfur fuel oil faces multiple pressures, including the possible decline of geopolitical factors, the steady increase in production in the Middle East, the end of the power generation peak season, and the possible weakening of refinery feed demand. Its weak trend is expected to continue [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil market fundamentals are strengthening due to supply - side disturbances, strong diesel cracking, and increased demand. However, the supply rebound risk from the RFCC unit maintenance of the Dangote refinery in Nigeria at the end of December needs attention [2] Asphalt - In November, the discount of diluted asphalt dropped to - 11 US dollars per barrel, and the cost support continued to weaken [3] - Since November, the weekly shipment volume has decreased month - on - month and is at a low level in the same period of the past four years. The commercial inventory depletion has slowed down, and the year - on - year increase of social inventory has expanded. The medium - to - long - term fundamentals are bearish [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - This week, the commodity volume decreased but the arrival volume increased, with supply having an incremental bearish suppression [4] - The profitability improvement of butane dehydrogenation units boosted the downstream chemical enterprises' enthusiasm for starting work, and the demand on the combustion side improved due to the significant cooling in many places [4] - The supply - demand relationship weakened marginally, causing the LPG trading floor to turn weak [4]