Report Title - Corn Bullish in the Short Term, Maintain Low-Buying Strategy; Pig Prices Grinding at the Bottom, Weak Oscillation in the Futures Market; Egg Spot Prices Oscillating at Low Levels, Near-Term Contracts Gaining Premium [2] Report Core Views - Corn is bullish in the short term, and the low-buying strategy remains unchanged. Pig prices are grinding at the bottom, and the futures market is weakly oscillating. Egg spot prices are oscillating at low levels, and near-term contracts are gaining premium [2][4][9][14] Corn Futures Important Information - Deep-processing enterprises' purchase prices in the Northeast and North China regions increased slightly, with the Northeast at 2036 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan/ton) and North China at 2263 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan/ton) [4] - On the 21st, the price in the northern port was weakly stable, and the southern port was relatively strong. The purchase price of second-grade new-season corn with 15% moisture at Jinzhou Port was about 2170 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan/ton), and the transaction price at Shekou Port was 2350 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton) [4] - On the 21st, the number of corn futures warehouse receipts decreased by 573 to 68,764 [4] - The cost-effectiveness of corn for feed increased. As of November 20th, the wheat-corn price difference in Shandong was +280 yuan/ton, narrowing by 10 yuan/ton [4] - In October 2025, the total import volume of ordinary corn was 360,000 tons, the highest this year, with a year-on-year increase of 44%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 1.31 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 90.02% [4] Market Logic - Short term: Spot prices are under pressure from concentrated supply but supported by warehouse purchases. After the seasonal selling pressure is released, prices are expected to stabilize and rise. Attention should be paid to the impact of continuous rain in North China on yield and grain quality [4] - Medium term: Conduct band trading around the new-season corn drivers, considering factors such as farmers' selling sentiment and downstream inventory building. Maintain a wide-range trading strategy [4] - Long term: Maintain the pricing logic of import substitution and planting cost, with a focus on policy guidance [4] Trading Strategy - Medium and long term: Maintain a range trading strategy; short term: Maintain the short-term low-buying strategy. For the 2601 contract, support is at 2150 - 2160, and the first resistance is at 2200. If it breaks through 2200, the resistance moves up to 2220 - 2230 [5] Pig Futures Important Information - On the 21st, the national average pig price was 11.58 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day. On the 22nd, prices in different regions were expected to be stable or slightly increase [9] - In September 2025, the number of fertile sows was 40.35 million, a quarterly decrease of 0.2%, still 103.46% of the normal level. The number of new-born piglets in the first half of the year was at a historical high, and the number in September continued to increase month-on-month, indicating an expected increase in pig supply before March next year [9] - As of November 20th, the average slaughter weight of pigs was 124.77 kg, an increase of 0.04 kg from the previous week [9] - On November 20th, the price difference between fat and lean pigs was 0.35 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [9] - The China National Grain and Oils Information Center announced that from November 24th to 27th, a total of 9,000 tons of central frozen pork will be purchased and 9,000 tons will be sold [9] Market Logic - Short term: Farmers' willingness to hold back sales is increasing, and downstream consumption has improved due to the drop in temperature, leading to a halt in price decline. However, the short-term supply-demand imbalance persists, limiting the upside potential of prices. Attention should be paid to the impact of short-term purchases on market sentiment and the winter epidemic prevention situation [9] - Medium term: The increase in the number of new-born piglets from February to September (except in July) indicates an expected increase in pig supply before March next year, restricting price increases. Pig prices are in a low-level oscillation phase [9] - Long term: The number of fertile sows is still above the normal level, and production efficiency has increased year-on-year. If there is no major epidemic, the full-year pig production capacity will continue to be realized [9] Trading Strategy - Spot prices continue to grind at the bottom. Near-term contracts are oscillating to repair the basis. Short term: The price may break through the previous low and weaken further; Medium and long term: Wait for the effectiveness of farmers' capacity reduction. Far-term contracts are trading based on the expected difference in capacity reduction driven by policies. Pay attention to the actual change in the number of sows. Do not be overly bullish on far-term contracts before significant sow reduction [10] Egg Futures Important Information - On the 21st, the national egg price was stable. The average price in the main production areas was 2.82 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day, and the average price in the main sales areas was 3.26 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin [14] - In October, the number of laying hens in production was about 1.359 billion, a month-on-month decrease of 0.66% and a year-on-year increase of 5.59%. The estimated number of laying hens in November is 1.36 billion, a month-on-month increase of 0.07% [15] Market Logic - Short term: Egg prices are under pressure but also supported. The number of culled hens has increased, slightly relieving the supply pressure. However, the high number of laying hens in production and the rising inventory limit the upside potential. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [16] - Medium term: The supply-demand imbalance is difficult to reverse completely. The limited reduction in the age of culled hens and the incomplete release of supply pressure, combined with weak downstream consumption, suggest that prices may continue to trade in a low range. Attention should be paid to the scale and intensity of culling driven by low prices [16] - Long term: The continuous expansion of egg production scale may prolong the price bottoming period. Wait patiently for the capacity reduction process driven by over-culling [16] Trading Strategy - It was suggested in the morning report on Wednesday to gradually close out previous short positions. Currently, it is recommended to wait and see. Next week, continue to pay attention to the opportunity to trade the premium of near-term contracts after the price rallies [16] - Medium and long term: Focus on whether the culling behavior driven by low prices can be sustained and whether it can lead to actual capacity reduction. As of now, the capacity cannot be cleared before the second quarter of next year, and supply pressure remains. Whether the second quarter can be a turning point depends on the culling situation in the first quarter [16]
现货低位震荡，鸡蛋近月再收升水
Ge Lin Qi Huo·2025-11-21 11:12