有色金属日报-20251121

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall non - ferrous metals market is in a state of adjustment, with many varieties showing a pattern of reduced positions and price fluctuations. The market is affected by multiple factors such as macro - economic data, policy expectations, and supply - demand fundamentals [2][3][4] - Different non - ferrous metal varieties have different price trends and influencing factors, and investment opportunities and risks vary [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Shanghai copper reduced positions and declined, testing the MA40 moving average again in the short - term. The domestic refined copper was reported at 85,815 yuan, and the premiums in Shanghai and Guangdong slightly increased. Technically, LME copper temporarily fell below the 40 - day moving average, with potential support at the MA60 moving average. Short - positions should adjust the stop - loss level to 86,500 yuan [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum oscillated weakly, and the spot discounts in East China, Central China, and South China slightly narrowed. The short - term fundamentals of the aluminum market are average, with poor inventory accumulation feedback, and the adjustment may continue. The price of cast aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price, and the price difference with AL may narrow. Alumina has a high operating capacity, with rising inventory and supply surplus. Before large - scale production cuts, alumina will operate weakly [3][6] Zinc - Affected by the divergence of US non - farm payrolls and unemployment rate data and the unclear prospect of the Fed's December interest rate cut, the long - position funds in the non - ferrous sector continued to reduce positions. Shanghai zinc, as a low - valued variety, was more resistant to decline than Shanghai aluminum. There is still a profit opportunity for cross - market reverse arbitrage on the disk, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel hit a new low recently, and the market trading activity increased. The support from the rebound of upstream prices is weakening, which may drag down the price level of the nickel industry chain. Nickel inventory increased, and the nickel price is running weakly with a downward - trending center of gravity [7] Tin - Shanghai tin reduced positions and declined. In October, the import of domestic tin concentrates increased significantly month - on - month. The long - term short - positions should hold with a stop - loss level of 295,000 yuan [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate once hit the daily limit down. The market is worried about systemic risks due to the overnight plunge of overseas US stocks, and the futures price is oscillating at a high level. Risk control should be the top priority [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures continued to decline with reduced positions. The spot prices of industrial silicon and silicone remained unchanged. The impact of the expected reduction in silicone demand on the supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon is relatively limited. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the price dynamics of silicone [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures opened lower and then oscillated higher. The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells are weakening. The supply - demand improvement of polysilicon is limited, and the short - term futures price is affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment and maintains an oscillating pattern [11]