融资平台出清后信用风险变化浅析：破局重整，信用重塑

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The clearance of financing platforms is an important measure to resolve local debt risks, aiming to achieve sustainable development of the local economy and state - owned enterprises. It involves the separation of government financing functions, decoupling of government credit, and structural adjustment of the government - enterprise relationship. - In the short term, the overall credit quality of financing platforms will not decline significantly, but attention should be paid to the differentiation of credit risks. In the long term, the credit risk level of financing platforms after clearance depends more on their own cash flow and solvency, which are greatly affected by the process and effect of their market - oriented transformation. [3][20] Summary by Directory Introduction - Local financing platforms have contributed to China's local economic development and urbanization, but with the end of the urbanization process, the increasing debt burden of local governments, and the decreasing marginal benefit of investment, it is urgent to resolve local debt risks. - As of the end of 2024, China's government debt balance was 92.6 trillion yuan, with a government debt - to - GDP ratio of 68.7%, which is in a reasonable range and the debt risk is controllable. However, there are prominent structural and liquidity problems in government debt, and the debt of financing platforms is also an important source of local debt risks. [5][6] Necessity of Financing Platform Clearance Essence of Financing Platform Clearance - The formation of financing platform debt risks is due to factors such as the mismatch of local government's powers and financial resources, the expansion of infrastructure investment, and the high dependence on land finance. - The central government has introduced a series of policies to regulate financing platforms, and financing platform clearance involves not only formal "exiting the platform" and "zeroing out implicit debt" but also deeper - level reforms. [7][10][13] Purpose of Financing Platform Clearance - It is a necessary measure to support the high - quality development of the real economy, helping to release the inefficient occupation of financial resources and promote the transformation of the economic development model. - It is a basic requirement to adapt to the transformation of the urbanization development stage, as the historical mission of financing platforms is basically completed. - It is a direct means to close the back - door financing channels of local governments, curbing the disorderly expansion of local debt. - It is a prerequisite for enhancing the market competitiveness of local state - owned enterprises, forcing them to pursue market - oriented development. [14][15][16] Connotation of "Powerful, Orderly, and Effective" Promotion of Financing Platform Clearance - Powerful means having a firm attitude in implementing debt - resolution policies and strengthening the cleaning and standardization of financing platforms. - Orderly means arranging the clearance rhythm reasonably to avoid new risks during the process. - Effective means achieving the expected short - term, medium - term, and long - term effects, such as functional transformation, relationship adjustment, and the growth of high - quality state - owned enterprises. [17][18][19] Credit Risk Changes after Financing Platform Clearance Changes in Government - Enterprise Relationship, Functional Positioning, and Main Business - After clearance, financing platforms will be divided into three categories: transforming into market - oriented operating entities, retaining public - welfare functions, and liquidating and exiting. - In the short term, the relationship between financing platforms and local governments remains close, but in the long term, it will gradually weaken. - The functional positioning of financing platforms will change from urban investment and construction to urban comprehensive operation and regional industrial cultivation. - The business operations of financing platforms will gradually shift to market - oriented businesses, and they need to develop core competitiveness based on regional resource endowments. [21][22][23] Credit Risk Changes - In the short term, the overall credit quality of financing platforms will not decline significantly, but there is a differentiation of credit risks among different regions and platforms. - In the long term, the credit risk of financing platforms depends on their market - oriented transformation, and platforms in economically underdeveloped regions may face difficulties in refinancing and debt repayment. [24][25][26] Issues to be Noted - There are still few successful transformation cases of financing platforms, and "true clearance" requires the separation of historical debts, integration of operating resources, innovation of mechanisms and systems, and guarantee of reasonable financing needs. - Attention should be paid to issues such as the integration of operating resources, innovation of mechanisms and systems, and the guarantee of reasonable financing needs. In the second half of the ten - year debt - resolution period, the difficulty of resolving implicit debts and clearing financing platforms increases, and various forms of false clearance should be prevented. [27][28] Summary - To fundamentally prevent and resolve local debt risks, it is necessary to change the economic development concept, accelerate the reform of the fiscal and taxation system, and establish a long - term mechanism for local debt risk management. - The clearance of financing platforms is an important measure to resolve local debt risks and a key to deepening state - owned enterprise reform and stimulating the endogenous power of the local economy. [29][30]