国投期货软商品日报-20251121

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ☆☆☆ (White stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆ (Same as above) [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ (Same as above) [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆ (Same as above) [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ (Same as above) [1] - Natural Rubber: ☆☆☆ (Same as above) [1] - 20 - number Rubber: ☆☆☆ (Same as above) [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ (Same as above) [1] Core Views - Cotton: Zhengzhou cotton is expected to remain range - bound due to new cotton listing and general demand, while the spot price is stable. The pure cotton yarn market has weak transactions. It's advisable to wait and see [2]. - Sugar: The sugar price is expected to remain weak. Brazilian production data is bearish, and there is supply pressure in the domestic market. The market focuses on the next - season's output estimate [3]. - Apple: There is an increase in long - short divergence. The market's trading logic shifts to sales expectations, and the de - stocking situation should be monitored [4]. - Natural Rubber, 20 - number Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber: Demand continues to weaken, natural rubber supply is decreasing, synthetic rubber supply is increasing, inventory is rising, and cost support is stable. It's advisable to wait and see and focus on cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6]. - Pulp: Due to continuous inventory build - up at domestic ports, loose supply, weak demand, and narrowing basis, the pulp price has been falling. It's advisable to wait and see [7]. - Timber: Low inventory supports the price. With weak domestic prices, low import willingness, and certain demand, it's advisable to wait and see [8]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Price: Zhengzhou cotton fell slightly, and the spot sales basis was stable. The mainstream lower sales basis of 2025/26 southern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton was CF01 + 950 - 1050 [2]. - Supply: As of November 13, the national cumulative processed lint cotton was 3.907 million tons, an increase of 670,000 tons year - on - year and 1.342 million tons more than the four - year average [2]. - Demand: The pure cotton yarn market had weak transactions, with fewer new orders for spinning mills, decreased开机, and weavers mainly making rigid purchases [2]. Sugar - International: Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In mid - late October, the production data in central - southern Brazil was bearish, with increased cane crushing volume and a slightly higher sugar - making ratio [3]. - Domestic: Zhengzhou sugar was weak. In October, the syrup import volume decreased year - on - year, but sugar imports were relatively large. The market focuses on the next - season's output estimate, and the 2025/26 sugar output in Guangxi is expected to be good [3]. Apple - Price: The futures price fluctuated, and the price of small and medium - sized apples in the warehouse was relatively strong [4]. - Inventory: As of November 20, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 7.33 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.73% [4]. - Trading Logic: The trading logic has shifted to sales expectations, and the de - stocking situation is the main trading point [4]. 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Price: The futures prices of natural rubber RU, 20 - number rubber NR, and butadiene rubber BR fluctuated sharply. Domestic spot prices were stable with a slight decline, the overseas butadiene tower - mouth price was stable, and the Thai raw material market price rose [6]. - Supply: Global natural rubber supply is in the high - yield period, while the Yunnan region in China is gradually entering the non - tapping period. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate increased, and some plants were under maintenance [6]. - Demand: The domestic tire operating rate decreased due to some tire enterprises' maintenance [6]. - Inventory: The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased to 452,600 tons, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber social inventory increased to 17,000 tons, and the upstream butadiene port inventory increased significantly to 39,800 tons [6]. Pulp - Price: The pulp futures continued to fall. The spot price of coniferous pulp Moon was 5,350 yuan/ton, and that of broad - leaved pulp Goldfish was 4,400 yuan/ton [7]. - Inventory: As of November 20, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.173 million tons, a 63,000 - ton increase from the previous period and a 3.0% month - on - month increase [7]. - Supply and Demand: The supply was loose, demand was weak, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm was low [7]. Timber - Price: The futures price fluctuated, and the mainstream spot price was stable [8]. - Supply: In November, the price of New Zealand radiata pine increased, and domestic importers' willingness to import decreased. Domestic supply is expected to remain low [8]. - Demand: The port delivery volume was over 60,000 cubic meters, providing support for the price [8]. - Inventory: The total log inventory was low, and the inventory pressure was relatively small [8].