黑色金属日报-20251121

Report Investment Ratings - The operation ratings for various products are as follows: Threaded steel is rated with three stars (★★★), hot-rolled coil with three white stars (☆☆☆), iron ore with three white stars (☆☆☆), coke with three red stars (★★★), coking coal with one red star (★☆☆), silicon manganese with one red star (★☆☆), and ferrosilicon with one red star (★☆☆) [1]. Core Views - The overall situation of the steel industry is complex. The demand is still pessimistic, the cost side is weak, and the market is under pressure. The iron ore market is expected to be volatile, and the coke and coking coal markets are likely to be weak. The silicon manganese market has a downward shift in the bottom support expectation, while the ferrosilicon market has relatively strong bottom support [2][3][4]. Summary by Product Steel - Today's steel market is mainly volatile. The demand for rebar and hot-rolled coils has improved, but the downstream's ability to absorb is insufficient, and steel mills continue to lose money. The possibility of further blast furnace production cuts is high, and the supply pressure is gradually easing. The overall domestic demand is still weak, and the export of steel has declined from its high level. The demand expectation is still pessimistic, and the market is under pressure, but there is still some support in the downward shift of the oscillation range [2]. Iron Ore - The iron ore market is oscillating today. The global shipment is strong, and the domestic port inventory is still in an accumulative trend. The demand for steel has rebounded, but it has entered the off-season, and steel mills' profitability is poor. The iron ore fundamentals are marginally looser, and the market is expected to be mainly oscillating [3]. Coke - The coke price declined today. The coking profit is average, and the daily production is slightly decreasing. The inventory has slightly increased, and the downstream's procurement is on a small scale as needed. The overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream's demand for raw materials is still resilient, but the steel mills' profit is average, and they have a strong desire to lower the price of raw materials. The coke market is expected to be weak and oscillating [4]. Coking Coal - The coking coal price declined today. The production of coking coal mines has slightly decreased, and the spot auction transactions are average. The overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream's demand for raw materials is still resilient, but the steel mills' profit is average, and they have a strong desire to lower the price of raw materials. The coking coal market is expected to be weak and oscillating [5]. Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price oscillated downward today. The market expects an increase in coal mine supply guarantee, which may lead to a decline in power costs and chemical coke prices. The demand for iron water has rebounded to a high level, but the production of silicon manganese is still at a relatively high level, and the inventory is slowly increasing. The bottom support expectation has shifted downward [6]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price oscillated upward today. The market expects an increase in coal mine supply guarantee, which may lead to a decline in power costs and semi-coke prices. The demand for iron water has rebounded to a high level, and the export demand has increased to about 40,000 tons. The overall demand is still resilient, and the inventory is continuously decreasing. The bottom support is relatively strong [7].