PP日报：震荡下行-20251121

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The PP market is expected to experience weak and volatile trends due to factors such as increased supply from restarted devices and new capacity, limited downstream demand, high inventory levels, and falling crude oil prices [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs 行情分析 - PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.29 percentage points to 53.57%, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years, with the plastic weaving operating rate for the main拉丝 product unchanged at 44.24% and slightly fewer orders than last year [1] - On November 21, some maintenance devices restarted, causing the PP enterprise operating rate to rise to around 83.5%, and the production ratio of the standard product拉丝 increased to around 27% [1][4] - Petrochemical inventory reduction slowed down, and the current inventory is at a moderately high level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4] - Crude oil prices fell due to factors such as Russia's oil production being unaffected by sanctions and the possibility of a cease - fire in the Ukraine conflict [1] - New capacity of 400,000 tons/year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of maintenance devices decreased recently [1] - The downstream is at the end of the peak season, with limited order follow - up and lack of large - scale centralized procurement, and traders generally offer discounts to stimulate transactions [1] - Anti - involution policies and the elimination of old devices to address over - capacity are macro - policies that will affect future market trends [1] 期现行情 - Futures: The PP2601 contract decreased by 0.61% to close at 6357 yuan/ton, with an increase of 8880 lots in open interest to 626,835 lots [2] - Spot: Most PP spot prices in various regions declined, with the拉丝 product priced at 6180 - 6500 yuan/ton [3] 基本面跟踪 - Supply: On November 21, some maintenance devices restarted, and the PP enterprise operating rate rose to around 83.5% [4] - Demand: As of the week ending November 21, the PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.29 percentage points to 53.57%, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years, and the plastic weaving operating rate for the main拉丝 product was unchanged at 44.24% [1][4] - Inventory: Petrochemical inventory decreased by 0.5 million tons to 68.5 million tons on Friday, 8 million tons higher than the same period last year, and inventory reduction slowed down [4] 原料端原油 - The Brent crude oil 01 contract dropped to 63 US dollars per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained unchanged at 730 US dollars per ton [6]