塑料日报：震荡下行-20251121

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The plastic industry is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near future due to factors such as unchanged supply - demand patterns, slowing petrochemical inventory reduction, and insufficient downstream procurement willingness [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情分析 - On November 21, the restart of maintenance devices like Zhongtianhechuang's LDPE 1 line increased the plastic operating rate to around 89.5%, a neutral level [1][4]. - As of the week ending November 21, the downstream PE operating rate rose 0.20 percentage points to 44.69%. The agricultural film is in the peak - season end, with stable orders but lower - than - expected peak - season performance. The overall downstream PE operating rate is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4]. - Petrochemical inventory reduction has slowed, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a moderately high level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4]. - The cost of crude oil has decreased due to factors such as the lack of impact on Russian oil production from new sanctions and the potential for a cease - fire in the Ukraine conflict [1]. - New production capacities of ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE (500,000 tons/year) and PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical (700,000 tons/year) have been put into operation recently [1]. 3.2期现行情 3.2.1 Futures - The plastic 2601 contract decreased by 0.65% with a low of 6768 yuan/ton, a high of 6841 yuan/ton, and closed at 6770 yuan/ton below the 60 - day moving average. The trading volume decreased by 3991 lots to 512,746 lots [2]. 3.2.2 Spot - Most PE spot markets declined, with price changes ranging from - 100 to + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was priced at 6790 - 7170 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8750 - 9280 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6950 - 7990 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3基本面跟踪 - Supply: On November 21, the restart of maintenance devices increased the plastic operating rate to around 89.5%, a neutral level [4]. - Demand: As of the week ending November 21, the downstream PE operating rate rose 0.20 percentage points to 44.69%. The agricultural film is in the peak season with stable orders and slightly increased raw material inventory, and packaging film orders also slightly increased. However, the overall downstream PE operating rate is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4]. - Petrochemical inventory: On Friday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 0.5 million tons to 6.85 million tons, 0.8 million tons higher than the same period last year, and the inventory reduction slowed [4]. - Raw materials: Brent crude oil's 01 contract dropped to $63 per barrel, while the prices of Northeast Asian and Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $720 and $730 per ton respectively [4].