PVC日报：震荡运行-20251121

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - PVC is expected to experience weak and volatile trading in the near term due to factors such as the upcoming implementation of anti - dumping duties in India, limited impact of the BIS policy, high levels of futures warehouse receipts, and the decline in prices of coking coal and coke which dampen market sentiment [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region remains stable. The PVC operating rate has increased slightly by 0.32 percentage points to 78.83%, still at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream PVC operating rate has continued to decline slightly and is at a low level. The termination of India's BIS policy on PVC has alleviated concerns about Chinese exports, but the upcoming anti - dumping duties have led traders to adopt a wait - and - see attitude. Last week, export orders increased month - on - month. Social inventory has increased slightly and remains high, with significant inventory pressure. The real estate market is still in the adjustment phase, and its improvement requires time. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is positive, and new production capacities have been put into operation. There is no actual policy implementation in the PVC industry yet [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PVC2601 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 4449 yuan/ton, the highest was 4509 yuan/ton, and it closed at 4456 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.20%. The position volume decreased by 57,942 lots to 1,374,454 lots [2] - Basis: On November 21, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China remained at 4410 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4456 yuan/ton. The current basis is - 46 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged, and the basis is at a moderately low level [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: The maintenance of some devices such as Shandong Xinfa has ended, and the PVC operating rate has increased by 0.32 percentage points to 78.83%. New production capacities including Wanhua Chemical, Tianjin Bohua, Qingdao Gulf, Gansu Yaowang, and Jiaxing Jiahua have been put into operation or are in low - load operation [4] - Demand: The real estate market is still in the adjustment phase. From January to October 2025, real estate investment, new construction, and completion areas decreased significantly year - on - year, and the year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, new construction, and completion further declined. As of the week of November 16, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 19.73% month - on - month but was still at the lowest level in recent years [5] - Inventory: As of the week of November 20, PVC social inventory increased by 0.41% month - on - month to 1.0326 million tons, 23.47% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory has increased slightly and remains high [6]