市场预期反复，矿价高位承压

Report Title Market Expectations Fluctuate, Iron Ore Prices Under Pressure at High Levels [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report This week, iron ore prices rose from the bottom. Supply-side disturbances resurfaced, significantly impacting market sentiment in the short term, but the room for further increase is limited. The overall supply pattern in the fourth quarter remains loose. The rapid decline in domestic steel demand is expected to dominate medium-term iron ore prices, and it is predicted that iron ore prices will mainly operate with a high-level downward trend [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - Logic Analysis: Since November, the supply side has remained stable. Mainstream Australian mines are basically flat year-on-year, while Brazilian mines contribute a small increase. Non-mainstream shipments have slightly declined compared to the high in the third quarter but still contribute an increase year-on-year. From the demand side, domestic terminal steel demand has shown signs of improvement in the fourth quarter but remains low in the medium term. Overseas steel demand maintains high growth. Overall, the rapid decline in domestic steel demand is expected to dominate medium-term iron ore prices, and the iron ore supply-demand pattern in China has become looser since the fourth quarter [3]. - Trading Strategy: Adopt a bearish approach for unilateral trading, and adopt a wait-and-see approach for arbitrage and options trading [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Global Iron Ore Shipment Volume - Global iron ore shipment volume has rebounded rapidly on a weekly basis. In 2025 to date, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments is 31.13 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2% or 28 million tons. Among them, the weekly average of Australian shipments is 17.85 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3% or 2 million tons, and the weekly average of Brazilian shipments is 7.6 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% or 11.5 million tons [6][13]. - Non-Australian and non-Brazilian iron ore shipments have rebounded slightly on a weekly basis. In 2025 to date, the weekly average of non-Australian and non-Brazilian iron ore shipments is 18.7 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%. The third quarter saw an improvement in non-mainstream iron ore shipments, and although the fourth quarter shipments have slightly declined compared to the high in the third quarter, they still contribute a certain increase year-on-year [14][15]. 3.2.2 Imported Iron Ore Port Inventory - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore ports has slightly declined. Since August, the total domestic iron element inventory has continued to increase, and the inventory accumulation has exceeded 12 million tons. Currently, the total domestic iron element inventory is at a high level in the past five years, second only to the level in 2021 [16][25]. 3.2.3 Terminal Steel Demand - Since the third quarter of 2025, domestic molten iron production has increased by 3.3% or 11.3 million tons year-on-year, and crude steel production has increased by 3% or 12 million tons year-on-year. However, domestic crude steel consumption has decreased by 3.3% or 12.3 million tons year-on-year (excluding exports). Overseas iron element consumption has increased by nearly 4% or 27.6 million tons year-on-year, and has been at a high level year-on-year since the second quarter, continuously contributing an increase [26][30]. 3.2.4 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - The overall supply of iron ore in the fourth quarter remains loose, and the rapid decline in domestic steel demand is expected to dominate medium-term iron ore prices [3]. 3.2.5 Iron Ore Price and Profit - No specific summary of price and profit trends is provided in the text, but only various price and profit data charts are presented. 3.2.6 Iron Ore Futures Basis and Spread - The basis of the iron ore main contract has room to decline, and various basis and spread data charts are presented [44]. 3.2.7 Global Four Major Mines' Shipments - Various data charts of the global shipments of the four major mines are presented, but no specific summary is provided [46]. 3.2.8 Imported Iron Ore Port Inventory Structure - Various data charts of the port inventory structure of imported iron ore are presented, but no specific summary is provided [49].