海外观察：美国2025年9月非农数据：9月非农数据的表与里

Employment Data - In September 2025, the U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding the forecast of 50,000, while the previous month's figure was revised down from 22,000 to -4,000[2] - The unemployment rate rose from 4.3% to 4.4%, against an expectation of 4.3%[2] Job Sector Analysis - The education and health services sectors contributed 59,000 jobs, and leisure and hospitality added 47,000 jobs, together accounting for 89.1% of the total job growth[3] - The manufacturing sector saw a slight improvement, with a job loss of only 6,000 compared to a loss of 15,000 in the previous month[2] Economic Implications - The increase in unemployment rate and the reliance on part-time jobs in key sectors suggest that the job market may not be as strong as the headline figures indicate[3] - The market's focus has shifted from job creation to the rising unemployment rate, with a slight increase in the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December to 39.1%[5] Future Projections - The Federal Reserve may only have room for one 25 basis point rate cut before the chairmanship change in May 2026, as the current benchmark rate is approximately 40 basis points above neutral levels[6][3] - The overall labor force participation rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.4%, with a notable decline in immigrant labor supply[3] Wage Growth Concerns - Average hourly earnings growth slowed to 0.2% in September from 0.4% in August, particularly in the service sector, raising concerns about purchasing power amid rising inflation[3]