银河期货煤炭日报-20251121

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that coal prices will remain stable in the short - term. Although the supply is tightening with low production in major coal - producing areas, the demand growth is limited due to the overall economic situation. The port inventory is stable, and the power plants' inventory is in different states. The coastal power plants are increasing procurement, but the daily coal consumption is low [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - On November 21, the port market showed a sideways shock pattern. Affected by gale - induced navigation closures, the inventory in Bohai Rim ports increased significantly, and some ports restricted unloading. The prices of different calorific value coal in ports, Inner Mongolia, Yulin, Shanxi, and Jiangnei ports are provided [2]. Important Information - According to the National Bureau of Statistics on November 14, the power production of industrial enterprises above designated size in China accelerated. In October, the power generation was 800.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%, 6.4 percentage points faster than in September. From January to October, the power generation was 8062.5 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 2.3% [3]. Logical Analysis - Supply: The impact of production restrictions still exists. The coal mine operating rates in major coal - producing areas of Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia are generally stable. As of November 20, the coal mine operating rate in Ordos was 78%, and in Yulin was 46%. The daily coal output in Ordos and Yulin was over 3.9 million tons, and the domestic supply tightened overall. - Import: China's demand weakened, but international coal prices still rose. - Demand: This week, the demand was average. China's procurement demand weakened, Japan and South Korea's procurement was average, and India's procurement demand showed no improvement. The precipitation in Indonesia affected the supply, and the overseas cargo volume was small, with miners having a strong willingness to hold prices. The demand for heating coal increased significantly with the arrival of winter, but the coal - consumption demand in the industrial sector was lackluster due to the overall economic situation. Power plants were cautious in procurement, mainly locking in coal sources through long - term contracts and adjusting market coal purchases according to market dynamics. - Inventory: Railway transportation returned to normal. The average daily transportation volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao line was 1.3 million tons, and the number of approved trains by the Hohhot Railway Bureau was around 30. The port inventory was generally stable. As of November 21, the inventory in Bohai Rim ports was 24.48 million tons, at a neutral level over the years. The daily consumption of coastal power plants was low, but the inventory was continuously decreasing, while the inventory of inland power plants was at a neutral level. - Overall Situation: In late November, the coal production in major producing areas was low. The coal mine operating rates in Ordos and Yulin were stable, with a daily output of around 3.8 million tons, and the supply tightened. The power plant inventory was continuously decreasing, and the import profit was available. Coastal power plants increased procurement. The port inventory fluctuated within a range. The daily coal consumption of power plants was low, but the coastal power plant inventory was lower than the same period, with continuous rigid - demand procurement. The port FOB price rose continuously. The coal mine operating rate was low due to strengthened safety supervision at the mine mouth, and the chemical coal demand was okay, with the increase of the mine - mouth price narrowing. It is expected that coal prices will remain stable in the short - term [4].