Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-21 11:19Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The trade war situation has improved, and there is a substantial turning point in geopolitical conflicts, but it has not yet affected the trade sector. Japan's actions may exacerbate geopolitical risks. China's export performance was weak in October, and freight rates lack support. With the arrival of the fourth - quarter shipping peak season, the demand side may pick up. The current freight rate market is highly influenced by news, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate more violently. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data in a timely manner [6][34]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) declined collectively this week. The main contract EC2602 closed down 3.78%, and the far - month contracts fell between 1 - 3%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 1357.67, down 147.13 points from last week, a 9.8% month - on - month decrease, which drove down the futures prices [5][33]. - The price of the main contract of the container shipping index (European line) futures decreased slightly this week. The trading volume and open interest of the EC2602 contract increased, and market trading warmed up [10][13]. 3.2 News Review and Analysis - Japan's actions, including the prime minister's wrong remarks on Taiwan and the issue of Japanese aquatic product exports, may have a negative impact on the market [18]. - Statements from the State Council Premier at the SCO meeting and the Fed's policy meeting minutes are considered neutral [18]. - The US's modification of patent rules and restrictions on Chinese enterprises are negative, while the Netherlands' suspension of the administrative order against Anshi Semiconductor is neutral to positive [18]. 3.3 Weekly Market Data - The basis of the container shipping index (European line) futures contracts shrank, and the spread widened this week [21]. - The export container freight rate index rebounded rapidly this week. Global container shipping capacity continued to grow, and the shipping capacity on the European line recovered with the approaching peak season. The BDI and BPI declined due to geopolitical factors [24][27]. - The charter price of Panamax ships fluctuated at a high level this week, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar converged [29]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - The futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) declined collectively this week. China's manufacturing PMI in October declined more than seasonally, and the new export order index dropped significantly. The freight rate expectation continued to fall as shipping companies' price - support actions did not fully materialize. The Middle East situation postponed the expectation of Red Sea re - navigation. Germany's economic performance boosted market confidence [5][33]. - Considering the overall situation, although there are positive signs in trade and geopolitics, the freight rate lacks support. With the peak season approaching, the demand side may improve. The market is volatile, and investors should be cautious and track relevant data [6][34].