银河期货甲醇日报-20251121

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. 2) Core View of the Report The methanol market continues to show a weak trend. The international device operating rate has increased, the supply is abundant, and the downstream demand is stable. Although the port inventory accumulation cycle has ended, the arrival volume is expected to rise further, and the MTO start - up has slightly declined. The domestic supply is loose, but the inland price is relatively firm due to factors such as stable MTO start - up and large - scale device shutdown. With the upcoming gas - limiting season in Iran and the weakening impact of external factors, methanol will mainly maintain a weak trend [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Futures market: The futures price fluctuated weakly, closing at 2004, down 7 or 0.35% [2]. - Spot market: Different regions have different price quotations. For example, in production areas, the price in Inner Mongolia's southern line is 1920 yuan/ton, and in consumption areas, the price in southern Shandong is 2070 yuan/ton [2]. Important Information In the current cycle (20251115 - 20251121), the international (ex - China) methanol production is 1068585 tons, and the device capacity utilization rate is 73.25%, remaining flat compared to last week [3]. Logical Analysis - Supply side: The profit of coal - to - methanol is around 320 yuan/ton, and the domestic supply is continuously abundant with a high and stable operating rate [4]. - Import side: The US dollar price has been falling, imports are in a positive spread situation, the external market operating rate is rising, and there is a large amount of non - Iranian supply [4]. - Demand side: The MTO device operating rate has rebounded, and some MTO devices are operating stably or with insufficient loads [4]. - Inventory: The port inventory accumulation cycle has ended, the basis is strong, and the inland enterprise inventory fluctuates slightly [4]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Stop profit on short positions [5]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6]. - Options: Sell call options [6].