黑色系周度报告-20251121

1. Report Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Long - term: Construction site funds availability has slightly increased but remains significantly lower year - on - year. Real estate data recovery is slow. Steel mills' profitability is on the decline, and the steel fundamentals are weak, with a tendency for weak oscillations. Iron ore is under pressure due to expected supply loosening and a decline in daily hot - metal production. For glass and soda ash, glass inventory is accumulating, production is decreasing, and demand is weak. The supply of soda ash is loose, and the weak supply - demand situation is hard to change [68][72]. - Short - term: In the macro - policy vacuum period, the sentiment in the market is weak. The steel futures market will be in a weak oscillation, and iron ore will operate at a low level. The glass futures price is on a downward trend, dragging down the soda ash futures price, and both will be under pressure in the short term [69][73]. 3. Summary by Directory Black - series Weekly Market Review - Futures Prices: From November 14th to 21st, 2025, among the main futures contracts, the prices of螺纹钢,热卷, and铁矿石 increased, while those of 焦炭,焦煤, glass, and 纯碱 decreased. The price of 螺纹钢 rose from 3053 to 3057,热卷 from 3256 to 3270, and 铁矿石 from 773 to 786; 焦炭 dropped from 1670 to 1615,焦煤 from 1192 to 1103, glass from 1032 to 987, and 纯碱 from 1226 to 1170 [3]. - Spot Prices: The spot prices of 螺纹钢, 热卷, 铁矿石, 焦炭, 焦煤, 玻璃, and 纯碱 were 3220, 3270, 807, 1770, 1530, 1120, and 1261 respectively. The corresponding basis (unadjusted) was 163, 0, 22, 156, 427, 133, and 91 [3]. Rebar - Profit: On November 20th, the blast - furnace profit of rebar was - 31 yuan/ton [7]. - Supply: As of November 21st, the blast - furnace operating rate was 82.19%, a decrease of 0.62 percentage points. The daily average hot - metal output was 236.28 tons, a decrease of 0.6 tons, while the weekly rebar production was 207.96 tons, an increase of 7.96 tons [13]. - Demand: In the week of November 21st, the apparent consumption of rebar was 230.79 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.42 tons. As of November 20th, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 84,520 tons [18]. - Inventory: In the week of November 21st, the social inventory of rebar was 400.02 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15.73 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 153.32 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.1 tons [23]. Iron Ore - Supply: In the week of November 14th, the global iron ore shipment volume was 35.164 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.474 million tons, and the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 23.699 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.994 million tons [28]. - Inventory: In the week of November 21st, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 157.3485 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7799 million tons, and the inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel enterprises was 90.0123 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7478 million tons [33]. - Demand: In the week of November 21st, the daily average port - clearance volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 3.4339 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0311 million tons. As of November 20th, the trading volume at major Chinese ports was 0.918 million tons [38]. Float Glass - Supply: In the week of November 21st, the number of operating float - glass production lines was 222, the same as the previous week. The weekly output was 1.110195 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3750 tons. As of November 20th, the capacity utilization rate was 79.03%, and the operating rate was 74.66% [43]. - Inventory: In the week of November 21st, the in - plant inventory of float glass was 63.303 million weight - boxes, a week - on - week increase of 56,000 tons, and the available inventory days were 27.5, the same as the previous week [48]. - Demand: In the week of November 17th, the deep - processing order days of glass downstream manufacturers were 9.9 days [52]. Soda Ash - Supply: In the week of November 21st, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 82.68%, a decrease of 2.12 percentage points compared with the previous week, and the output was 720,900 tons, a decrease of 18,300 tons compared with the previous week [56]. - Inventory: As of November 21st, the in - plant inventory of soda ash was 1.6444 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 62,900 tons [61]. - Sales Rate: As of November 21st, the sales rate of soda ash was 108.73%, a week - on - week increase of 7.8 percentage points [65].