纸浆产业周报：期价下跌动量延续-20251121

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of pulp futures prices is expected to be volatile or weakly volatile, with the price center slightly shifting downwards. Attention should be paid to the impacts brought by changes in supply and demand [2][3]. - In the short - term trading logic, the overall idea should be to short at high levels, but beware of the possibility of price rebounds at low levels. In the long - term trading, although the impact of needle pulp warehouse receipts has been mostly priced in, there are uncertainties in the supply of long - term warehouse receipts, which brings certain benefits. The Fed's continuous interest - rate cut process may stop, and the macro sentiment is relatively weak, while there may be favorable policy factors [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations - Core Contradictions - The core influencing factors this week are the poor downstream bidding situation and the accumulation of port inventories. The poor bidding situation has affected the confidence of paper enterprises and prices. The increase in Chinese port inventories by 63,000 tons has also put pressure on futures prices. In addition, some pulp mills are expected to increase production in the future, which will increase the supply pressure. The downstream paper - making operating rate has declined, and demand has weakened. The previous increase in pulp futures prices was also affected by capital, and the current decline is a return to a relatively normal price [2][3]. - Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - Futures trading can consider temporary waiting and watching, or short - term shorting at high levels. Options strategies can also wait and watch temporarily. The 12 - 01 backwardation spread arbitrage can continue to be held [15]. - Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - For enterprises with high inventories of finished products (needle pulp/offset printing paper) who are worried about price drops, they can short pulp/offset printing paper futures to lock in profits and cover production costs, or sell call options to collect premiums. For papermaking enterprises with low inventories that want to purchase according to orders, they can buy pulp/offset printing paper futures to lock in procurement costs in advance, or sell put options to collect premiums [9]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information - Positive Information - Some pulp mills are under maintenance, and European port pulp inventories decreased in September [11]. - Negative Information - Port inventories have accumulated, the Thurderbay pulp mill and the US Woodland pulp mill will switch to producing needle pulp, and the bidding situation of paper enterprises is poor [16]. - Spot Transaction Information - The report provides detailed price information on various types of pulp, including futures prices, domestic spot prices, and domestic finished - paper average prices, as well as their price changes [17]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation - Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - The SP2601 contract fluctuated widely this week. Both long and short positions showed signs of slight reduction. The RSI indicator rose and is still in the buying range but is approaching the neutral range, with a high possibility of continued short - term fluctuations [19]. - Basis and Spread Structure - The 12 - 06 contract maintains a C - structure, and the 07 - 11 contract is in a B - structure. The suppression of needle pulp warehouse receipts continues, and the current inventory reduction is slow. Attention can be paid to the 12 - 01 spread backwardation arbitrage [22]. 3.4 Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Inventory - On November 21st, the inventory was 2.173 million tons (+63,000 tons), showing a significant increase compared to last week. The domestic monthly import volume of needle pulp in late September was 760,000 tons, showing a rebound from August. The global pulp shipment volume to China at the end of August increased by 5.7% month - on - month, which will put pressure on subsequent pulp inventory reduction. The inventories of downstream finished papers in enterprises are continuously accumulating, and the profit margins have declined this week, restricting the raw - material replenishment actions of downstream enterprises [26]. - Supply - It includes domestic production volume and import volume. The report provides historical data and seasonal charts of domestic pulp production and import volume [51][53]. - Demand - It includes the capacity utilization rate, production volume, export volume, and consumption volume of finished papers. The report provides historical data and seasonal charts of these aspects [60][64][68][73].