油料产业风险管理日报-20251121

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The current focus of soybean meal futures trading is on whether the 53 bushels/acre yield of US soybeans on the external market will continue to decrease, and whether the 12 million tons of Chinese purchases claimed by the US can be reflected in the annual balance sheet. If the inventory remains around 300 million bushels, the annual price of US soybeans will fluctuate around the cost line, and the domestic soybean meal will lack a single - sided driver. The near - month contracts will strengthen due to seasonal de - stocking, while the far - month contracts will be weak due to Brazilian supply pressure, continuing the long - near and short - far positive spread logic [4]. - Rapeseed meal will remain in a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter. With the expectation of additional Sino - Canadian talks and the arrival of Australian rapeseed after November, the subsequent demand growth is limited, and supply is expected to recover. The coastal and oil mill rapeseed meal inventories remain high, so it is regarded as weak. Attention can be paid to the new warrant registration after the centralized cancellation of warrants in November [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - Price Forecast: The monthly price range of soybean meal is predicted to be 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 5.0%. The monthly price range of rapeseed meal is predicted to be 2250 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.8% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 20.8% [3]. - Hedging Strategies: - For traders with high protein inventory, they can short 25% of M2601 soybean meal futures at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - Feed mills with low inventory can buy 50% of M2601 soybean meal futures at 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal prices can short 50% of M2601 soybean meal futures at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - Soybean Meal: The external market focuses on whether the 53 bushels/acre yield of US soybeans will be further reduced and whether the 12 million tons of Chinese purchases can be realized. The domestic market has a positive spread logic of near - strong and far - weak [4]. - Rapeseed Meal: It will be in a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter. With the expected supply recovery and limited demand growth, it is regarded as weak, and attention can be paid to the warrant registration after the November cancellation [4]. 3.3 Market Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: Brazilian export premiums support far - month contract prices, the external market balance sheet's price range moves up, and the pressure on near - month contracts eases during the warrant cancellation month [8]. - Negative Factors: The current near - month supply of imported soybeans is high, Brazilian planting is smooth with a high - yield expectation, and the far - month supply gap is filled under the Sino - US negotiation and procurement background [8]. 3.4 Market Quotes - Futures Prices: The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3012, down 5 (- 0.17%); soybean meal 05 is 2803, down 8 (- 0.28%); soybean meal 09 is 2915, down 11 (- 0.38%); rapeseed meal 01 is 2431, up 19 (0.79%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2367, down 10 (- 0.42%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2435, down 9 (- 0.37%); CBOT soybeans are 1123, unchanged; the offshore RMB is 7.1198, up 0.0019 (0.03%) [9]. - Spreads and Basis: The spreads and basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures and spot are presented in the report, such as the M01 - 05 spread of soybean meal is 209, up 3, and the RM01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal is 64, up 29 [10]. 3.5 Import Costs and Profits - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4759.4897 yuan/ton, up 47.3957 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 879.9197 yuan/ton. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans is 3817.15 yuan/ton, down 37.46 yuan/ton, with a profit of 182.5377 yuan/ton. The import cost difference between US Gulf (3%) and US Gulf (23%) is - 773.9008 yuan/ton, up 7.8381 yuan/ton. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed on the futures market is 692 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton, and the spot profit is 954 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [11].