2026年宏观经济、政策与大类资产配置展望：革故鼎新：修复式增长下的再平衡与新动力

Economic Outlook - The nominal GDP growth rate is expected to rise to around 5% in 2026, up from approximately 4% in 2025, indicating a significant recovery in economic performance[14] - Inflation is anticipated to rebound, with CPI growth turning positive and PPI declines narrowing significantly[3] - The government budget deficit rate is projected to remain at around 4%, with new government bond financing potentially increasing to approximately 12.8 trillion yuan[3] Structural Changes - The Chinese economy is undergoing a profound transformation characterized by the decline of "old forces" such as real estate, which is in an "L-shaped" bottoming phase, while "new forces" like AI and new productivity are emerging as key growth drivers[2] - The shift from external demand reliance to internal demand dominance is expected, with policies aimed at expanding domestic consumption and countering "involution" trends[2][15] Market Dynamics - The A-share market is likely to see opportunities as the focus shifts from liquidity-driven growth to price and earnings-driven growth, with a more balanced market style anticipated in 2026[4] - The U.S. dollar is expected to remain strong, influenced by the relative economic strength of the U.S., despite potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[4] Risks and Challenges - There are risks of economic downturns exceeding expectations, insufficient policy execution, and geopolitical uncertainties affecting market sentiment[7] - The ongoing challenges in the real estate sector and local government debt pressures may limit fiscal stimulus effectiveness[20][24]