JCF(SZ:000420) Changjiang Securities·2025-11-21 13:42Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of approximately 4.019 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 44%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was about 33 million yuan, a decrease of 47% year-on-year, with the non-recurring net profit also declining by 47% [5][6]. - In Q3 2025, the revenue was approximately 1.384 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 35% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was about 11 million yuan, down 52% year-on-year and 23% quarter-on-quarter, with the non-recurring net profit decreasing by 59% year-on-year and 29% quarter-on-quarter [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the gross profit margin was approximately 10.9%, a decrease of 5.1 percentage points year-on-year. In Q3 2025, the gross profit margin was about 9.3%, down 7.1 percentage points year-on-year. This decline is primarily due to the increased proportion of low-margin viscose short fibers [12]. - The company’s expense ratio for the first three quarters was approximately 8.2%, a decrease of 3.4 percentage points year-on-year. The expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial expenses all saw year-on-year declines [12]. Industry Dynamics - The carbon fiber industry is experiencing a recovery in demand, with significant sales growth. The industry’s capacity utilization rate has increased from approximately 48% to 62% since March, indicating a recovery in production levels [12]. - The potential supply in the carbon fiber industry remains high, but the introduction of policies to curb disorderly production may benefit the mid-term market structure. The long-term growth of carbon fiber is supported by increasing penetration in wind energy and automotive industries [12]. Profit Forecast - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated to be 60 million, 160 million, and 220 million yuan, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 176, 60, and 44 times. The potential recovery in carbon fiber prices could enhance profitability [12].