投资策略报告：海外扰动下把握慢牛配置良机-20251121

Core Insights - The report indicates that after the favorable news has been fully priced in, the market is experiencing a weak bullish phase, leading to profit-taking concerns and subsequent global asset adjustments [4][10] - Recent market movements show significant declines in major indices, with the S&P and Nasdaq dropping 1.6% and 2.2% respectively, while A-shares and Asian markets also faced pressure [4][10] - The report highlights that despite positive catalysts such as Nvidia's earnings and strong non-farm payroll data, bearish sentiments persist, particularly regarding technology stocks and valuation concerns [4][10] Market Overview - The report notes that both the US and Chinese markets have entered a period of observation and adjustment, with a focus on profit-taking and healthy corrections [5][11] - It emphasizes that after sustained increases, both markets require a period of rest to better prepare for the next upward movement, with A-shares particularly positioned for future gains based on upcoming earnings [5][11] - The report identifies that the banking and dividend sectors have shown significant excess returns, with state-owned banks and dividend stocks outperforming by 10.0%, 8.7%, 6.5%, and 3.7% respectively since November [5][12] Future Outlook - The long-term trends for both US and Chinese stock markets, including technology sectors, remain unchanged, with several factors supporting this view [6][13] - For A-shares, the report outlines four key aspects: supportive policy towards capital markets, a weak recovery trend, continued liquidity improvements, and strong top-level policy support for the technology sector [6][13] - The report anticipates potential scenarios for A-shares in December, including unexpected policy support or structural adjustments leading to a market rally, with a focus on technology growth stocks [7][14]