1121 港股日评：降息预期退潮，港股科技承压-20251122

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Hang Seng Index dropping by 2.38% to 25,220.02, and the Hang Seng Tech Index falling by 3.21% to 5,395.49, reflecting a broader market adjustment influenced by tightening liquidity expectations in the U.S. [5][9] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for September showed mixed results, with an addition of 119,000 jobs, which was above expectations but still at a low level, leading to a decrease in the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December to 33.1% [9][5] - The AI industry chain's pullback in the U.S. has negatively impacted Hong Kong's hard tech sector, particularly the semiconductor sector, which saw significant declines [9][5] Market Performance - On November 21, 2025, the total trading volume in the Hong Kong market reached HKD 285.7 billion, with net inflows from southbound funds amounting to HKD 10.5 million [2][9] - The major indices in the A-share market also experienced declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 2.45% and the CSI 300 down by 2.44% [5][9] - The sector performance showed that all primary sectors under the CITIC Hong Kong Stock Connect Index declined, with steel (-6.39%), non-ferrous metals (-4.39%), and retail (-4.26%) leading the losses [5][9] Industry Outlook - The report suggests a cautious outlook for the Hong Kong stock market, indicating a potential "slow bull" market as it awaits renewed expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and clarity in AI long-term narratives [9] - The focus for medium to long-term investments should shift towards sectors driven by new productive forces, including AI and robotics, which are at a critical stage of commercialization [9] - The report highlights four key investment directions: 1) Quality supply creating new demand, 2) Re-evaluation of scarce resources driven by energy transition and geopolitical factors, 3) Recovery from excess capacity in industries like photovoltaics and chemicals, and 4) Benefits to financial markets from increased market activity and low-interest environments [9]