固定收益点评：年末日历效应，这次有何不同？

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market yield tends to decline at the end of the year. This year, there are both similarities and structural differences compared with previous years. Although the supply and liquidity levels still provide a certain probability of decline for the bond market, the weakening of demand momentum and the limited easing strength jointly restrict the space for interest rate decline, resulting in insufficient odds. It is recommended that investors seize phased trading opportunities [4][35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Review of History: What are the Laws of the Bond Market at the End of the Year? - The bond market yield tends to decline at the end of the year, mainly due to four factors: the decline in supply pressure, institutions' early layout, relatively stable policy expectations, and the central bank's active care for cross - year liquidity, which together form a phased support for the bond market [4][13][15]. - Since 2020, bond market yields have generally declined from November to December, with a significant "calendar effect". The yield of 10Y Treasury bonds has declined significantly during this period, deviating from this rule only in 2020 (Yongmei incident) and 2022 (wealth management redemption wave) due to extreme risk events [10]. 3.2. How will the Bond Market Perform at the End of this Year? - Supply side: The supply pressure is relatively controllable. As of November 21, 2025, the annual net financing scale of Treasury bonds has reached 6.1 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 93%, significantly faster than the same period in previous years (except 2024), and the remaining issuance quota is only 0.5 trillion yuan [23]. - Demand side: It may be relatively weak. Affected by the positive stock market sentiment and the potential redemption new rules, the demand of insurance and funds may be weaker than in previous years. Insurance has a slowdown in liability - side growth and a shift to equity in asset allocation, while funds face potential redemption pressure from the new rules [26][27]. - Policy side: There are still some variables. The policy tone is expected to continue the general principle of "seeking progress while maintaining stability", and the risk of policy tightening is small. However, the specific policy intensity, introduction rhythm, and structural focus are still uncertain [30]. - Liquidity: The central bank's bond - buying intensity is not weak. The central bank has a clear orientation to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, and recent operations show the intention to stabilize the capital market through structural tools. However, the implementation of total - volume easing tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts may still need to wait [31][34].