2026年电煤长协签订启动，煤价蓄势待发

Investment Rating - The coal industry maintains a rating of "stronger than the market" [7] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the fundamental goal is to reverse the Producer Price Index (PPI) decline, with October's PPI year-on-year decline narrowing to 2.1%. Coal prices are expected to stabilize, and the lowest coal price in 2025 may represent a policy bottom. The report anticipates further supply-side policies to be introduced [5][6] - The coal industry is viewed as being in a golden era due to energy transformation, with limited supply elasticity and increasing extraction difficulties. The report suggests that coal's status as a primary energy source is unlikely to change in the short term, and coal prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating upward trend [5][6] Summary by Sections 1. Coal Market Overview - As of November 21, 2025, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal closing price is 834 CNY/ton, unchanged week-on-week, with slight increases in prices from Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Shanxi [3][29] - The average daily output of 462 sample coal mines is 5.508 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 13,000 tons but a year-on-year decrease of 7.4% [3][37] - The inventory index for thermal coal is 188.8, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.6 [3][37] 2. Coking Coal - As of November 21, 2025, the price of coking coal at the Jing Tang Port is 1780 CNY/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 80 CNY/ton [4][66] - The average daily output of 523 sample coking coal mines is 758,000 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.7% [4][66] - The coking coal inventory has increased by 20.9 million tons year-on-year, a decrease of 43.2% [4][66] 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates that the daily consumption of the six major power plants has slightly increased to 805,000 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 1% [37][39] - The operating rates for methanol and urea are at 88.8% and 83.9%, respectively, indicating a high level of activity compared to historical levels [3][39] - The report highlights that coal supply is expected to remain tight due to strict capacity controls and increasing extraction difficulties [5][6] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong resource endowments and stable operating performance, such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [6] - Companies with production growth potential and those benefiting from the coal price cycle are also recommended, including Yanzhou Coal Mining, Huayang Co., and Gansu Energy [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of coal-electricity integration models to mitigate cyclical fluctuations, recommending companies like Shaanxi Energy and Xinji Energy [6]